This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel's refusal to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon, despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework tied to the June 15 US-Iran agreement ending broader hostilities, anchors current trader assessments. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stated on June 15-16 that troops would remain indefinitely in occupied areas to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting withdrawal as a precondition for any deal. Hezbollah rejected earlier June 3-4 ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon, insisting on full Israeli exit south of the Litani River before halting operations. Limited tactical pullbacks have occurred in spots like Dibbine, enabling Lebanese and UNIFIL repositioning, but broader diplomatic extensions of the April truce and US pressure have not altered Israel's security zone policy. Future US-Iran implementation steps or renewed Hezbollah attacks could influence timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Israel's refusal to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon, despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework tied to the June 15 US-Iran agreement ending broader hostilities, anchors current trader assessments. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stated on June 15-16 that troops would remain indefinitely in occupied areas to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting withdrawal as a precondition for any deal. Hezbollah rejected earlier June 3-4 ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon, insisting on full Israeli exit south of the Litani River before halting operations. Limited tactical pullbacks have occurred in spots like Dibbine, enabling Lebanese and UNIFIL repositioning, but broader diplomatic extensions of the April truce and US pressure have not altered Israel's security zone policy. Future US-Iran implementation steps or renewed Hezbollah attacks could influence timelines.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Jun 26 2026
Israel and Lebanon sign US-brokered framework agreement for partial IDF withdrawal
December 31 plunges to 23%26%
Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement in Washington, D.C., under US mediation, outlining a plan for Israel to withdraw from two small areas in southern Lebanon, replaced by Lebanese forces. The deal linked Israeli withdrawal to Hezbollah disarmament, which Hezbollah rejected, maintaining uncertainty about full withdrawal and causing market prices for near-term withdrawal to remain low.
Jun 26 2026
Israel and Lebanon reach framework agreement for partial IDF withdrawal
On June 26, Israel and Lebanon reached a US-brokered framework agreement for the Israeli Defense Forces to begin partial withdrawal from two areas inside the buffer zone in southern Lebanon, to be replaced by Lebanese forces. This partial withdrawal did not indicate a full withdrawal by the earlier market dates, keeping probabilities low.
Jun 24 2026
Israeli Defense Minister Katz reiterates refusal to withdraw from southern Lebanon
Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the United States demanded it, emphasizing security concerns and rejecting international pressure. This hardened stance reinforced market expectations that a full withdrawal by mid-2026 was unlikely.
Jun 24 2026
Israeli Defense Minister Katz states no withdrawal from southern Lebanon despite US demands
July 31 dips to 2%1%
Defense Minister Israel Katz affirmed that Israeli troops would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the United States demanded it, further dampening market hopes for a full withdrawal by the end of June or July 2026.
Jun 22 2026
US official claims Israel has withdrawn from part of southern Lebanon buffer zone
A US State Department official stated that Israel had withdrawn from some southern Lebanese territory, with the Lebanese army expected to take over. However, Lebanese officials denied knowledge of any withdrawal, reflecting the ambiguous and limited nature of the pullback, which did not satisfy market expectations for full withdrawal.
Jun 22 2026
Israeli Foreign Minister Saar confirms no withdrawal from Lebanon's security zone
July 31 dips to 3%3%
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar stated Israel will not withdraw from the security zone in southern Lebanon, citing security concerns and the threat from Hezbollah. This official stance further diminished market confidence in withdrawal by July or August 2026.
Jun 19 2026
Israel and Hezbollah agree to ceasefire amid US-Iran talks
December 31 surges to 72%23%
Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire on June 19, 2026, following escalations in Lebanon. While this reduced immediate hostilities, Israel maintained its military presence in southern Lebanon, and ongoing strikes continued, limiting expectations for full withdrawal by near-term dates.
Jun 19 2026
Israel and Hezbollah renew ceasefire amid ongoing hostilities
Israel and Hezbollah agreed to renew a ceasefire after fighting threatened US-Iran negotiations, but Israeli forces continued operations in southern Lebanon. This fragile ceasefire maintained uncertainty about a full Israeli withdrawal, keeping market prices low for near-term withdrawal outcomes.
Jun 15 2026
Israeli Defense Minister Katz states forces will remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon
August 31 plunges to 14%15%
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly declared that Israeli troops would remain indefinitely in the security zones across Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, rejecting withdrawal despite the US-Iran agreement to end broader hostilities. This reinforced market expectations of no near-term withdrawal.
Jun 15 2026
Lebanese Culture Minister calls for Israeli withdrawal timetable for sustainable peace
September 30 dips to 39%4%
Lebanese Culture Minister Ghassan Salameh urged a clear timetable for Israeli withdrawal from occupied areas to enable a durable ceasefire, highlighting ongoing tensions and the need for concrete steps despite pilot zones. This underscored the diplomatic impasse affecting withdrawal timelines.
Jun 15 2026
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announces forces will remain in southern Lebanon
June 30 dips to 7%3%
Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli forces would stay in the Lebanon security buffer zone "for as long as necessary," rejecting calls for withdrawal despite a ceasefire agreement. This firm stance reduced market expectations for a withdrawal by mid-2026.
Jun 15 2026
Israel's Defense Minister Katz declares no withdrawal from southern Lebanon
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly stated that Israeli forces would remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon's security zones, rejecting any withdrawal despite the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. This firm stance reinforced market skepticism about a near-term withdrawal, causing prices for earlier withdrawal dates to drop.
Jun 15 2026
Lebanese Culture Minister calls for clear timetable for Israeli withdrawal
Lebanese Culture Minister Ghassan Salameh urged for a clear calendar of Israeli withdrawal from occupied southern Lebanon to enable a durable ceasefire, highlighting ongoing tensions and the need for concrete steps. This underscored the political complexity and contributed to market doubts about imminent withdrawal.
Apr 26 2026
Netanyahu orders army to 'vigorously attack' Hezbollah in Lebanon amid ceasefire breaches
June 30 dips to 7%4%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered intensified military attacks against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon following ceasefire violations. This escalation and continued military presence inside Lebanon signaled no imminent withdrawal, contributing to the market's decline in the probability of withdrawal by June 30.
Apr 26 2026
Israeli strikes kill 14 in Lebanon as Israel warns residents to leave towns beyond 'buffer zone'
June 30 dips to 11%3%
Israeli military strikes killed civilians in southern Lebanon and warned residents to evacuate towns beyond the buffer zone it occupied. Israel maintained military operations inside Lebanon despite the ceasefire, indicating ongoing control and conflict rather than withdrawal, which further decreased market confidence in withdrawal by June 30.
Apr 23 2026
Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extended by three weeks after Oval Office meeting
June 30 dips to 16%2%
Following talks hosted by U.S. President Trump, Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend the ceasefire for three more weeks. Despite the extension, Israeli strikes and Hezbollah attacks continued, and Israeli forces maintained their positions inside Lebanon, signaling no imminent withdrawal and pushing market prices lower.
Apr 19 2026
Israeli military publishes map showing control of new deployment line inside southern Lebanon
June 30 dips to 17%2%
Israel publicly revealed a map of its forward defense line extending 5-10 km into southern Lebanon, controlling dozens of mostly abandoned Lebanese villages. This demonstrated Israel's continued military presence and control inside Lebanon despite the ceasefire, reducing confidence in a near-term withdrawal.
Apr 17 2026
Israel and Lebanon agree to U.S.-brokered 10-day ceasefire with Israeli forces remaining in southern Lebanon
June 30 plunges to 19%25%
A U.S.-mediated ceasefire took effect on April 16-17, intended to pause hostilities and enable peace talks. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli ground forces would remain in a 10-kilometer security zone inside southern Lebanon, signaling no immediate withdrawal. This initial ceasefire raised hopes but did not indicate withdrawal, causing market prices for near-term withdrawal to fall from 44%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel's refusal to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon, despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework tied to the June 15 US-Iran agreement ending broader hostilities, anchors current trader assessments. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stated on June 15-16 that troops would remain indefinitely in occupied areas to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting withdrawal as a precondition for any deal. Hezbollah rejected earlier June 3-4 ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon, insisting on full Israeli exit south of the Litani River before halting operations. Limited tactical pullbacks have occurred in spots like Dibbine, enabling Lebanese and UNIFIL repositioning, but broader diplomatic extensions of the April truce and US pressure have not altered Israel's security zone policy. Future US-Iran implementation steps or renewed Hezbollah attacks could influence timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Israel's refusal to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon, despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework tied to the June 15 US-Iran agreement ending broader hostilities, anchors current trader assessments. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stated on June 15-16 that troops would remain indefinitely in occupied areas to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting withdrawal as a precondition for any deal. Hezbollah rejected earlier June 3-4 ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon, insisting on full Israeli exit south of the Litani River before halting operations. Limited tactical pullbacks have occurred in spots like Dibbine, enabling Lebanese and UNIFIL repositioning, but broader diplomatic extensions of the April truce and US pressure have not altered Israel's security zone policy. Future US-Iran implementation steps or renewed Hezbollah attacks could influence timelines.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Jun 26 2026
Israel and Lebanon sign US-brokered framework agreement for partial IDF withdrawal
December 31 plunges to 23%26%
Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement in Washington, D.C., under US mediation, outlining a plan for Israel to withdraw from two small areas in southern Lebanon, replaced by Lebanese forces. The deal linked Israeli withdrawal to Hezbollah disarmament, which Hezbollah rejected, maintaining uncertainty about full withdrawal and causing market prices for near-term withdrawal to remain low.
Jun 26 2026
Israel and Lebanon reach framework agreement for partial IDF withdrawal
On June 26, Israel and Lebanon reached a US-brokered framework agreement for the Israeli Defense Forces to begin partial withdrawal from two areas inside the buffer zone in southern Lebanon, to be replaced by Lebanese forces. This partial withdrawal did not indicate a full withdrawal by the earlier market dates, keeping probabilities low.
Jun 24 2026
Israeli Defense Minister Katz reiterates refusal to withdraw from southern Lebanon
Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the United States demanded it, emphasizing security concerns and rejecting international pressure. This hardened stance reinforced market expectations that a full withdrawal by mid-2026 was unlikely.
Jun 24 2026
Israeli Defense Minister Katz states no withdrawal from southern Lebanon despite US demands
July 31 dips to 2%1%
Defense Minister Israel Katz affirmed that Israeli troops would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the United States demanded it, further dampening market hopes for a full withdrawal by the end of June or July 2026.
Jun 22 2026
US official claims Israel has withdrawn from part of southern Lebanon buffer zone
A US State Department official stated that Israel had withdrawn from some southern Lebanese territory, with the Lebanese army expected to take over. However, Lebanese officials denied knowledge of any withdrawal, reflecting the ambiguous and limited nature of the pullback, which did not satisfy market expectations for full withdrawal.
Jun 22 2026
Israeli Foreign Minister Saar confirms no withdrawal from Lebanon's security zone
July 31 dips to 3%3%
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar stated Israel will not withdraw from the security zone in southern Lebanon, citing security concerns and the threat from Hezbollah. This official stance further diminished market confidence in withdrawal by July or August 2026.
Jun 19 2026
Israel and Hezbollah agree to ceasefire amid US-Iran talks
December 31 surges to 72%23%
Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire on June 19, 2026, following escalations in Lebanon. While this reduced immediate hostilities, Israel maintained its military presence in southern Lebanon, and ongoing strikes continued, limiting expectations for full withdrawal by near-term dates.
Jun 19 2026
Israel and Hezbollah renew ceasefire amid ongoing hostilities
Israel and Hezbollah agreed to renew a ceasefire after fighting threatened US-Iran negotiations, but Israeli forces continued operations in southern Lebanon. This fragile ceasefire maintained uncertainty about a full Israeli withdrawal, keeping market prices low for near-term withdrawal outcomes.
Jun 15 2026
Israeli Defense Minister Katz states forces will remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon
August 31 plunges to 14%15%
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly declared that Israeli troops would remain indefinitely in the security zones across Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, rejecting withdrawal despite the US-Iran agreement to end broader hostilities. This reinforced market expectations of no near-term withdrawal.
Jun 15 2026
Lebanese Culture Minister calls for Israeli withdrawal timetable for sustainable peace
September 30 dips to 39%4%
Lebanese Culture Minister Ghassan Salameh urged a clear timetable for Israeli withdrawal from occupied areas to enable a durable ceasefire, highlighting ongoing tensions and the need for concrete steps despite pilot zones. This underscored the diplomatic impasse affecting withdrawal timelines.
Jun 15 2026
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announces forces will remain in southern Lebanon
June 30 dips to 7%3%
Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli forces would stay in the Lebanon security buffer zone "for as long as necessary," rejecting calls for withdrawal despite a ceasefire agreement. This firm stance reduced market expectations for a withdrawal by mid-2026.
Jun 15 2026
Israel's Defense Minister Katz declares no withdrawal from southern Lebanon
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly stated that Israeli forces would remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon's security zones, rejecting any withdrawal despite the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. This firm stance reinforced market skepticism about a near-term withdrawal, causing prices for earlier withdrawal dates to drop.
Jun 15 2026
Lebanese Culture Minister calls for clear timetable for Israeli withdrawal
Lebanese Culture Minister Ghassan Salameh urged for a clear calendar of Israeli withdrawal from occupied southern Lebanon to enable a durable ceasefire, highlighting ongoing tensions and the need for concrete steps. This underscored the political complexity and contributed to market doubts about imminent withdrawal.
Apr 26 2026
Netanyahu orders army to 'vigorously attack' Hezbollah in Lebanon amid ceasefire breaches
June 30 dips to 7%4%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered intensified military attacks against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon following ceasefire violations. This escalation and continued military presence inside Lebanon signaled no imminent withdrawal, contributing to the market's decline in the probability of withdrawal by June 30.
Apr 26 2026
Israeli strikes kill 14 in Lebanon as Israel warns residents to leave towns beyond 'buffer zone'
June 30 dips to 11%3%
Israeli military strikes killed civilians in southern Lebanon and warned residents to evacuate towns beyond the buffer zone it occupied. Israel maintained military operations inside Lebanon despite the ceasefire, indicating ongoing control and conflict rather than withdrawal, which further decreased market confidence in withdrawal by June 30.
Apr 23 2026
Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extended by three weeks after Oval Office meeting
June 30 dips to 16%2%
Following talks hosted by U.S. President Trump, Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend the ceasefire for three more weeks. Despite the extension, Israeli strikes and Hezbollah attacks continued, and Israeli forces maintained their positions inside Lebanon, signaling no imminent withdrawal and pushing market prices lower.
Apr 19 2026
Israeli military publishes map showing control of new deployment line inside southern Lebanon
June 30 dips to 17%2%
Israel publicly revealed a map of its forward defense line extending 5-10 km into southern Lebanon, controlling dozens of mostly abandoned Lebanese villages. This demonstrated Israel's continued military presence and control inside Lebanon despite the ceasefire, reducing confidence in a near-term withdrawal.
Apr 17 2026
Israel and Lebanon agree to U.S.-brokered 10-day ceasefire with Israeli forces remaining in southern Lebanon
June 30 plunges to 19%25%
A U.S.-mediated ceasefire took effect on April 16-17, intended to pause hostilities and enable peace talks. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli ground forces would remain in a 10-kilometer security zone inside southern Lebanon, signaling no immediate withdrawal. This initial ceasefire raised hopes but did not indicate withdrawal, causing market prices for near-term withdrawal to fall from 44%.
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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan
"Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 7 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "December 31" di 24%, diikuti oleh "September 30" di 12%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 24¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 24% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.
Per hari ini, "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" telah menghasilkan $6.9 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Apr 16, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.
Untuk trading di "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?," jelajahi 7 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.
Unggulan saat ini untuk "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" adalah "December 31" di 24%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 24% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "September 30" di 12%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.
Aturan resolusi untuk "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.
Ya. Kamu tidak perlu trading untuk tetap terinformasi. Halaman ini berfungsi sebagai pelacak langsung untuk "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?." Probabilitas hasil diperbarui secara real-time saat trade baru masuk. Kamu bisa menandai halaman ini dan memeriksa bagian komentar untuk melihat apa yang dikatakan trader lain. Kamu juga bisa menggunakan filter rentang waktu pada grafik untuk melihat bagaimana peluang bergeser seiring waktu. Ini jendela real-time gratis tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.
Peluang Polymarket ditetapkan oleh trader nyata yang menaruh uang nyata di balik keyakinan mereka, yang cenderung menghasilkan prediksi yang akurat. Dengan $6.9 million diperdagangkan pada "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?," harga-harga ini mengumpulkan pengetahuan dan keyakinan kolektif dari ribuan peserta — sering kali mengalahkan jajak pendapat, prakiraan ahli, dan survei tradisional. Pasar prediksi seperti Polymarket memiliki rekam jejak akurasi yang kuat, terutama saat event mendekati tanggal resolusinya. Misalnya, Polymarket memiliki skor akurasi satu bulan sebesar 94%. Untuk statistik terbaru tentang akurasi prediksi Polymarket, kunjungi halaman akurasi di Polymarket.
Untuk melakukan trade pertamamu di "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?," daftar akun Polymarket gratis dan isi dengan crypto, kartu kredit atau debit, atau transfer bank. Setelah akunmu terisi, kembali ke halaman ini, pilih hasil yang ingin kamu trading, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu baru di pasar prediksi, klik link "Cara kerjanya" di bagian atas halaman Polymarket mana pun untuk panduan langkah demi langkah tentang cara trading.
Di Polymarket, harga setiap hasil mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Harga 24¢ untuk "December 31" di pasar "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" berarti trader secara kolektif percaya ada sekitar peluang 24% bahwa "December 31" akan menjadi hasil yang benar. Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" di 24¢ dan hasilnya benar, kamu menerima $1,00 per saham — keuntungan 76¢ per saham. Jika salah, saham tersebut bernilai $0.
Tanggal berakhir pasar "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" telah lewat, tetapi pasar belum diselesaikan secara resmi. Tanggal berakhir menunjukkan kapan event yang mendasarinya diperkirakan terjadi atau dapat diketahui. Ini bukan saat trading berhenti. Pasar tetap terbuka untuk trading sampai hasilnya diselesaikan secara resmi melalui proses resolusi. Kamu masih bisa membeli, menjual, atau menutup posisimu saat pasar menunggu resolusi. Periksa pelacak status resolusi dan bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini untuk pembaruan tentang jadwal resolusi.
Pasar "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" memiliki komunitas aktif dengan 210 komentar di mana trader berbagi analisis, memperdebatkan hasil, dan membahas perkembangan terkini. Scroll ke bawah ke bagian komentar untuk membaca apa yang dipikirkan peserta lain. Kamu juga bisa memfilter berdasarkan "Top Holder" untuk melihat posisi trader terbesar pasar, atau periksa tab "Aktivitas" untuk feed real-time dari trade.
Polymarket adalah pasar prediksi terbesar di dunia, di mana kamu bisa tetap terinformasi dan mendapatkan keuntungan dari pengetahuanmu tentang event dunia nyata. Trader membeli dan menjual saham pada hasil untuk topik mulai dari politik dan pemilu hingga crypto, keuangan, olahraga, teknologi, dan budaya, termasuk pasar seperti "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?." Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time yang didukung oleh keyakinan finansial, sering kali memberikan sinyal yang lebih cepat dan lebih akurat daripada jajak pendapat, pakar, atau survei tradisional.
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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan