Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Red Sea facilities have driven volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily volumes fluctuating between 29 and 41 vessels in late July amid heightened insurance premiums and selective rerouting by carriers. This uncertainty produces tightly clustered market-implied odds near 47–49.5% across the 180–220+ bins, reflecting trader consensus that weekly totals could settle in a narrow range depending on whether attacks intensify or ease before August 3. Key swing factors include daily average trends, freight rate spikes, and any shifts in major liners’ routing policies, all priced in by capital-at-risk participants assessing near-term geopolitical risk versus historical throughput baselines.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?
<180 51%
180-199 50%
220+ 50%
200-219 49%
BARU
BARU
Aug 9, 2026
<180
51%
180-199
50%
200-219
49%
220+
50%
<180 51%
180-199 50%
220+ 50%
200-219 49%
BARU
BARU
Aug 9, 2026
<180
$0 Vol.
51%
180-199
$0 Vol.
50%
200-219
$0 Vol.
49%
220+
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Red Sea facilities have driven volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily volumes fluctuating between 29 and 41 vessels in late July amid heightened insurance premiums and selective rerouting by carriers. This uncertainty produces tightly clustered market-implied odds near 47–49.5% across the 180–220+ bins, reflecting trader consensus that weekly totals could settle in a narrow range depending on whether attacks intensify or ease before August 3. Key swing factors include daily average trends, freight rate spikes, and any shifts in major liners’ routing policies, all priced in by capital-at-risk participants assessing near-term geopolitical risk versus historical throughput baselines.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Red Sea facilities have driven volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily volumes fluctuating between 29 and 41 vessels in late July amid heightened insurance premiums and selective rerouting by carriers. This uncertainty produces tightly clustered market-implied odds near 47–49.5% across the 180–220+ bins, reflecting trader consensus that weekly totals could settle in a narrow range depending on whether attacks intensify or ease before August 3. Key swing factors include daily average trends, freight rate spikes, and any shifts in major liners’ routing policies, all priced in by capital-at-risk participants assessing near-term geopolitical risk versus historical throughput baselines.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Red Sea facilities have driven volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily volumes fluctuating between 29 and 41 vessels in late July amid heightened insurance premiums and selective rerouting by carriers. This uncertainty produces tightly clustered market-implied odds near 47–49.5% across the 180–220+ bins, reflecting trader consensus that weekly totals could settle in a narrow range depending on whether attacks intensify or ease before August 3. Key swing factors include daily average trends, freight rate spikes, and any shifts in major liners’ routing policies, all priced in by capital-at-risk participants assessing near-term geopolitical risk versus historical throughput baselines.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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