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Politik·Penghargaan

Pemenang Hadiah Nobel Perdamaian 2026

icon for Pemenang Hadiah Nobel Perdamaian 2026
Politik·Penghargaan

Pemenang Hadiah Nobel Perdamaian 2026

Donald Trump 11%

Yulia Navalnaya 8%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 5.9%

UNRWA 4.7%

Polymarket

$17,439,496 Vol.

Donald Trump 11%

Yulia Navalnaya 8%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 5.9%

UNRWA 4.7%

Polymarket

$17,439,496 Vol.

icon for Donald Trump

Donald Trump

$3,335,674 Vol.

11%

icon for Yulia Navalnaya

Yulia Navalnaya

$155,245 Vol.

8%

icon for Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

$465,710 Vol.

6%

icon for UNRWA

UNRWA

$1,945,480 Vol.

5%

icon for Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

$610,461 Vol.

4%

icon for Paus Leo XIV

Paus Leo XIV

$697,853 Vol.

3%

icon for Mahkamah Internasional

Mahkamah Internasional

$759,280 Vol.

2%

icon for Narendra Modi

Narendra Modi

$543,680 Vol.

2%

icon for Xi Jinping

Xi Jinping

$1,133,067 Vol.

1%

icon for Greta Thunberg

Greta Thunberg

$1,184,907 Vol.

1%

icon for Charlie Kirk

Charlie Kirk

$890,256 Vol.

1%

icon for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

$697,784 Vol.

1%

icon for Ahmed al-Sharaa

Ahmed al-Sharaa

$930,442 Vol.

1%

icon for António Guterres

António Guterres

$408,671 Vol.

1%

icon for Khaled Mashal

Khaled Mashal

$443,022 Vol.

1%

icon for Mohammed bin Salman

Mohammed bin Salman

$805,916 Vol.

1%

icon for Julian Assange

Julian Assange

$490,300 Vol.

1%

icon for Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin

$730,357 Vol.

1%

icon for Elon Musk

Elon Musk

$718,420 Vol.

<1%

icon for Benjamin Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu

$493,260 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.The April 30 disclosure of 287 nominees for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has created a fragmented field where no single contender commands strong consensus, leaving Donald Trump’s 10.5% implied probability as the current market leader. Trump’s positioning stems from confirmed nominations by heads of state in Israel, Pakistan, and Cambodia, plus trader focus on his prior peace-deal record, though the secretive Norwegian Nobel Committee has not verified his inclusion. Yulia Navalnaya’s 7.5% share reflects her rising profile as the public face of Russian opposition following her husband’s death, while Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s 5.9% rests on sustained international visibility around Ukraine’s defense. Organizations such as UNRWA sit at 4.7% amid ongoing humanitarian scrutiny. With the October 9 announcement still months away, summer endorsements and any verifiable diplomatic breakthroughs remain the key swing factors traders are watching.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volume
$17,439,496
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 10, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.The April 30 disclosure of 287 nominees for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has created a fragmented field where no single contender commands strong consensus, leaving Donald Trump’s 10.5% implied probability as the current market leader. Trump’s positioning stems from confirmed nominations by heads of state in Israel, Pakistan, and Cambodia, plus trader focus on his prior peace-deal record, though the secretive Norwegian Nobel Committee has not verified his inclusion. Yulia Navalnaya’s 7.5% share reflects her rising profile as the public face of Russian opposition following her husband’s death, while Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s 5.9% rests on sustained international visibility around Ukraine’s defense. Organizations such as UNRWA sit at 4.7% amid ongoing humanitarian scrutiny. With the October 9 announcement still months away, summer endorsements and any verifiable diplomatic breakthroughs remain the key swing factors traders are watching.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volume
$17,439,496
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 10, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Pemenang Hadiah Nobel Perdamaian 2026" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 20 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Donald Trump" di 11%, diikuti oleh "Yulia Navalnaya" di 8%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 11¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 11% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Pemenang Hadiah Nobel Perdamaian 2026" telah menghasilkan $17.4 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Oct 16, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Pemenang Hadiah Nobel Perdamaian 2026," jelajahi 20 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Pemenang Hadiah Nobel Perdamaian 2026" adalah "Donald Trump" di 11%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 11% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Yulia Navalnaya" di 8%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Pemenang Hadiah Nobel Perdamaian 2026" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.