Traders assign 95.5% probability that no Ukrainian peace referendum will pass before 2027 because U.S.-brokered talks have stalled since spring 2026 amid competing priorities, persistent Russian demands for territorial concessions, and Ukraine’s insistence on binding security guarantees plus a prior ceasefire. Public polling shows consistent resistance to major territorial compromises, while constitutional requirements for any such vote, logistical barriers under martial law, and the need to align it with elections create additional procedural hurdles. With no active ceasefire framework or draft agreement advancing as of mid-August 2026, the compressed timeline leaves insufficient runway for negotiations, domestic approval, and referendum execution. A rapid diplomatic breakthrough or decisive battlefield development could still compress this sequence before year-end.