Traders assign a 95.5% probability against a Ukraine peace referendum passing before 2027 due to stalled trilateral negotiations, which were suspended after the February 2026 outbreak of conflict in Iran and show little sign of resuming soon. Russian leadership has signaled no interest in substantive talks before early 2027, while Ukrainian requirements for a verifiable ceasefire—needed to organize voting on territorial issues under constitutional rules—remain unmet. Public surveys indicate strong resistance to major concessions, and domestic legal debates question whether a referendum is even required or permissible for any deal altering borders. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough, decisive battlefield shift, or leadership change could still open a narrow path to earlier voting.