Russia's political system shows consolidated control under President Vladimir Putin following the September 2026 State Duma elections, where United Russia secured a supermajority through managed voting and exclusion of genuine opposition. Security services remain loyal to the Kremlin, while economic dependence ties elites and oligarchs to regime stability amid the protracted Ukraine conflict. Public fatigue with the war exists alongside repression that limits organized dissent, with recent analyses noting no viable pathways for elite-led challenges or mass unrest. Trader consensus on low coup probability reflects these structural barriers, though developments such as severe military setbacks, fiscal crisis, or sudden leadership transitions could still introduce uncertainty within the resolution window.