**Recent Bank of Russia actions and data releases underscore the tight balance between gradual disinflation and persistent upside risks, keeping the December 2026 decision closely contested between a 25 bps cut and a hold.** After ten consecutive reductions since mid-2025—including 25 bps steps in June and July 2026 that brought the key rate to 14%—the central bank held steady on September 11. It cited significantly higher current price pressures from one-off factors, including temporary production capacity constraints in fuel and other sectors linked to external disruptions. Annual inflation is now projected at 6.0–7.0% for 2026 (revised higher), with underlying measures running at a 5–6% seasonally adjusted annualized rate, though the bank expects the disinflation trend to resume as these effects fade and demand remains restrained. Pro-inflationary influences from elevated fiscal spending and structural budget dynamics continue to warrant caution, prompting the bank to raise its 2026 average key rate forecast range and emphasize a smoother easing path. Analysts’ surveys show stable but elevated rate expectations around 14% for the year, reflecting uncertainty over whether incoming data on inflation, growth, the ruble, and external conditions will support another modest cut or a pause before year-end. This equilibrium leaves traders pricing the two leading outcomes nearly equally, with further separation likely hinging on October–November inflation prints, fiscal updates, and any shifts in supply or geopolitical pressures that alter the balance of risks.