Traders assign a 96.3% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the compressed timeframe and absence of observable large-scale amphibious, naval, or logistical preparations required for such an operation. US intelligence assessments from March 2026 indicate Beijing favors unification through coercive measures short of force, consistent with reduced PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ throughout 2026 and sustained gray-zone activity such as coast guard patrols. Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang exercises emphasize reservist mobilization, drone resilience, and anti-blockade defenses without signaling an acute threat. While economic interdependence, deterrence dynamics, and capacity constraints reinforce this consensus, low-probability triggers like sudden miscalculation or rapid escalation could still alter the trajectory before year-end.