**Recent US-Israeli strikes have severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities and related sites, leaving enrichment plants largely inoperable and limiting Iran's near-term ability to advance toward a nuclear test.** Satellite imagery from September and early October 2026 shows renewed vehicle activity and cleanup at the Minzadayi compound linked to weapons development work, indicating efforts to reconstitute capabilities after the March 2026 strike, yet no verified resumption of weapons-related production or test preparations. IAEA inspectors remain largely barred from damaged sites following Iran's 2025 suspension of cooperation, while ongoing US-Iran diplomatic talks emphasize demands for verifiable reductions in enrichment capacity. These factors, combined with the short timeline remaining in 2026, underpin traders' strong consensus that a nuclear test is unlikely before 2027.