Recent US and Israeli airstrikes have inflicted extensive damage on Iranian nuclear sites including Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Arak, with follow-on strikes into early 2026 further degrading enrichment halls, heavy-water infrastructure, and weaponization-related facilities. IAEA reports through June 2026 document continued loss of safeguards continuity, selective inspector access, and no verified resumption of large-scale enrichment activities capable of supporting an imminent test. Diplomatic channels remain active, including indirect US-Iran talks and IAEA board resolutions urging cooperation, while satellite imagery from mid-2026 shows only limited rebuilding efforts amid ongoing scrutiny. These verified setbacks to Iran's nuclear infrastructure underpin the strong trader consensus against a test before 2027, though further escalation or covert recovery could still alter timelines.
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Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% peluang
$235,602 Vol.
$235,602 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% peluang
$235,602 Vol.
$235,602 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli airstrikes have inflicted extensive damage on Iranian nuclear sites including Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Arak, with follow-on strikes into early 2026 further degrading enrichment halls, heavy-water infrastructure, and weaponization-related facilities. IAEA reports through June 2026 document continued loss of safeguards continuity, selective inspector access, and no verified resumption of large-scale enrichment activities capable of supporting an imminent test. Diplomatic channels remain active, including indirect US-Iran talks and IAEA board resolutions urging cooperation, while satellite imagery from mid-2026 shows only limited rebuilding efforts amid ongoing scrutiny. These verified setbacks to Iran's nuclear infrastructure underpin the strong trader consensus against a test before 2027, though further escalation or covert recovery could still alter timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$235,602Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli airstrikes have inflicted extensive damage on Iranian nuclear sites including Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Arak, with follow-on strikes into early 2026 further degrading enrichment halls, heavy-water infrastructure, and weaponization-related facilities. IAEA reports through June 2026 document continued loss of safeguards continuity, selective inspector access, and no verified resumption of large-scale enrichment activities capable of supporting an imminent test. Diplomatic channels remain active, including indirect US-Iran talks and IAEA board resolutions urging cooperation, while satellite imagery from mid-2026 shows only limited rebuilding efforts amid ongoing scrutiny. These verified setbacks to Iran's nuclear infrastructure underpin the strong trader consensus against a test before 2027, though further escalation or covert recovery could still alter timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$235,602Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US and Israeli airstrikes have inflicted extensive damage on Iranian nuclear sites including Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Arak, with follow-on strikes into early 2026 further degrading enrichment halls, heavy-water infrastructure, and weaponization-related facilities. IAEA reports through June 2026 document continued loss of safeguards continuity, selective inspector access, and no verified resumption of large-scale enrichment activities capable of supporting an imminent test. Diplomatic channels remain active, including indirect US-Iran talks and IAEA board resolutions urging cooperation, while satellite imagery from mid-2026 shows only limited rebuilding efforts amid ongoing scrutiny. These verified setbacks to Iran's nuclear infrastructure underpin the strong trader consensus against a test before 2027, though further escalation or covert recovery could still alter timelines.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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