China's ongoing gray-zone pressure on Taiwan, including frequent military drills, coast guard patrols in surrounding waters, and training for targeted strikes, has not escalated into preparations for a full-scale amphibious invasion. Analysts continue to cite the high economic and military costs of such an operation, combined with credible US and allied deterrence commitments, as key barriers through mid-2027. Recent developments show sustained but contained activity rather than the large-scale mobilization or diplomatic breakdowns that would signal imminent conflict. Trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% probability for no invasion by the June 30, 2027 resolution date aligns with assessments that Beijing views the risks as outweighing benefits in the near term, absent major shifts in cross-strait dynamics or US policy.