Traders assign an 85.5 percent probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, anchored by the U.S. intelligence community’s March 2026 assessment that Beijing holds no current plans or fixed timeline for military unification and continues to prioritize non-forcible options. The May 2026 Trump-Xi summit highlighted Taiwan as the central bilateral issue, with Chinese warnings of potential conflict if mishandled, yet produced no escalation signals and advanced parallel trade talks. Routine PLA air and naval incursions persist alongside gray-zone pressure, while Taiwan accelerates defense spending and U.S. arms deliveries continue, illustrating the prohibitive logistical and economic costs that sustain the current trader consensus on sustained deterrence over imminent invasion.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
$188,240 Vol.
$188,240 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
$188,240 Vol.
$188,240 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign an 85.5 percent probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, anchored by the U.S. intelligence community’s March 2026 assessment that Beijing holds no current plans or fixed timeline for military unification and continues to prioritize non-forcible options. The May 2026 Trump-Xi summit highlighted Taiwan as the central bilateral issue, with Chinese warnings of potential conflict if mishandled, yet produced no escalation signals and advanced parallel trade talks. Routine PLA air and naval incursions persist alongside gray-zone pressure, while Taiwan accelerates defense spending and U.S. arms deliveries continue, illustrating the prohibitive logistical and economic costs that sustain the current trader consensus on sustained deterrence over imminent invasion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
Volume
$188,240Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign an 85.5 percent probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, anchored by the U.S. intelligence community’s March 2026 assessment that Beijing holds no current plans or fixed timeline for military unification and continues to prioritize non-forcible options. The May 2026 Trump-Xi summit highlighted Taiwan as the central bilateral issue, with Chinese warnings of potential conflict if mishandled, yet produced no escalation signals and advanced parallel trade talks. Routine PLA air and naval incursions persist alongside gray-zone pressure, while Taiwan accelerates defense spending and U.S. arms deliveries continue, illustrating the prohibitive logistical and economic costs that sustain the current trader consensus on sustained deterrence over imminent invasion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$188,240Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 85.5 percent probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, anchored by the U.S. intelligence community’s March 2026 assessment that Beijing holds no current plans or fixed timeline for military unification and continues to prioritize non-forcible options. The May 2026 Trump-Xi summit highlighted Taiwan as the central bilateral issue, with Chinese warnings of potential conflict if mishandled, yet produced no escalation signals and advanced parallel trade talks. Routine PLA air and naval incursions persist alongside gray-zone pressure, while Taiwan accelerates defense spending and U.S. arms deliveries continue, illustrating the prohibitive logistical and economic costs that sustain the current trader consensus on sustained deterrence over imminent invasion.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan