China’s public long-range ballistic missile tests, particularly submarine-launched or open-water intercontinental events, occur infrequently and often cluster around specific training cycles or strategic demonstrations. The most recent acknowledged launch—a July 6, 2026, submarine-fired missile into the Pacific carrying a dummy warhead—marked only the second such Pacific test in years and prompted regional criticism over notification timing. Subsequent months have shown a documented lull in Rocket Force activity amid ongoing PLA leadership changes, with no comparable public tests reported since. Traders therefore assign high probability to no additional qualifying launches before year-end, reflecting the narrow historical window for these visible strategic signals outside routine domestic exercises.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiChina ballistic missile launch by December 31?
China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
19% peluang
$10,991 Vol.
$10,991 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
19% peluang
$10,991 Vol.
$10,991 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s public long-range ballistic missile tests, particularly submarine-launched or open-water intercontinental events, occur infrequently and often cluster around specific training cycles or strategic demonstrations. The most recent acknowledged launch—a July 6, 2026, submarine-fired missile into the Pacific carrying a dummy warhead—marked only the second such Pacific test in years and prompted regional criticism over notification timing. Subsequent months have shown a documented lull in Rocket Force activity amid ongoing PLA leadership changes, with no comparable public tests reported since. Traders therefore assign high probability to no additional qualifying launches before year-end, reflecting the narrow historical window for these visible strategic signals outside routine domestic exercises.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Volume
$10,991Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s public long-range ballistic missile tests, particularly submarine-launched or open-water intercontinental events, occur infrequently and often cluster around specific training cycles or strategic demonstrations. The most recent acknowledged launch—a July 6, 2026, submarine-fired missile into the Pacific carrying a dummy warhead—marked only the second such Pacific test in years and prompted regional criticism over notification timing. Subsequent months have shown a documented lull in Rocket Force activity amid ongoing PLA leadership changes, with no comparable public tests reported since. Traders therefore assign high probability to no additional qualifying launches before year-end, reflecting the narrow historical window for these visible strategic signals outside routine domestic exercises.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volume
$10,991Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...China’s public long-range ballistic missile tests, particularly submarine-launched or open-water intercontinental events, occur infrequently and often cluster around specific training cycles or strategic demonstrations. The most recent acknowledged launch—a July 6, 2026, submarine-fired missile into the Pacific carrying a dummy warhead—marked only the second such Pacific test in years and prompted regional criticism over notification timing. Subsequent months have shown a documented lull in Rocket Force activity amid ongoing PLA leadership changes, with no comparable public tests reported since. Traders therefore assign high probability to no additional qualifying launches before year-end, reflecting the narrow historical window for these visible strategic signals outside routine domestic exercises.
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