China’s established pattern of infrequent public long-range ballistic missile tests, with only isolated submarine-launched or intercontinental events acknowledged over decades, underpins the trader consensus reflected in the current odds. The most recent confirmed test occurred in July 2026 when the People’s Liberation Army Navy fired a submarine-launched missile with a dummy warhead into the Pacific, drawing regional criticism but described by Beijing as routine training. No subsequent military launches meeting the market criteria have been reported through mid-September, and satellite or space-vehicle activities such as the September Gravity-1 carrier rocket deployment do not qualify. Absent new signals of escalation or scheduled exercises within the resolution window, the low frequency of qualifying events continues to shape market positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiChina ballistic missile launch by December 31?
China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
19% peluang
$10,991 Vol.
$10,991 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
19% peluang
$10,991 Vol.
$10,991 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s established pattern of infrequent public long-range ballistic missile tests, with only isolated submarine-launched or intercontinental events acknowledged over decades, underpins the trader consensus reflected in the current odds. The most recent confirmed test occurred in July 2026 when the People’s Liberation Army Navy fired a submarine-launched missile with a dummy warhead into the Pacific, drawing regional criticism but described by Beijing as routine training. No subsequent military launches meeting the market criteria have been reported through mid-September, and satellite or space-vehicle activities such as the September Gravity-1 carrier rocket deployment do not qualify. Absent new signals of escalation or scheduled exercises within the resolution window, the low frequency of qualifying events continues to shape market positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Volume
$10,991Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s established pattern of infrequent public long-range ballistic missile tests, with only isolated submarine-launched or intercontinental events acknowledged over decades, underpins the trader consensus reflected in the current odds. The most recent confirmed test occurred in July 2026 when the People’s Liberation Army Navy fired a submarine-launched missile with a dummy warhead into the Pacific, drawing regional criticism but described by Beijing as routine training. No subsequent military launches meeting the market criteria have been reported through mid-September, and satellite or space-vehicle activities such as the September Gravity-1 carrier rocket deployment do not qualify. Absent new signals of escalation or scheduled exercises within the resolution window, the low frequency of qualifying events continues to shape market positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volume
$10,991Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...China’s established pattern of infrequent public long-range ballistic missile tests, with only isolated submarine-launched or intercontinental events acknowledged over decades, underpins the trader consensus reflected in the current odds. The most recent confirmed test occurred in July 2026 when the People’s Liberation Army Navy fired a submarine-launched missile with a dummy warhead into the Pacific, drawing regional criticism but described by Beijing as routine training. No subsequent military launches meeting the market criteria have been reported through mid-September, and satellite or space-vehicle activities such as the September Gravity-1 carrier rocket deployment do not qualify. Absent new signals of escalation or scheduled exercises within the resolution window, the low frequency of qualifying events continues to shape market positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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