China’s July 6 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, carrying a dummy warhead, underscores the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s ongoing strategic modernization and testing cadence. Regional responses from the United States, Australia, New Zealand, and others highlighted the display of sea-based nuclear capabilities amid broader Indo-Pacific tensions. This verifiable recent action, part of established PLA missile development patterns, aligns with the 70% implied probability traders assign to at least one additional ballistic missile launch occurring before year-end, reflecting expectations of continued routine exercises rather than any single confirmed schedule.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiChina ballistic missile launch by December 31?
China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s July 6 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, carrying a dummy warhead, underscores the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s ongoing strategic modernization and testing cadence. Regional responses from the United States, Australia, New Zealand, and others highlighted the display of sea-based nuclear capabilities amid broader Indo-Pacific tensions. This verifiable recent action, part of established PLA missile development patterns, aligns with the 70% implied probability traders assign to at least one additional ballistic missile launch occurring before year-end, reflecting expectations of continued routine exercises rather than any single confirmed schedule.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Volume
$955Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s July 6 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, carrying a dummy warhead, underscores the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s ongoing strategic modernization and testing cadence. Regional responses from the United States, Australia, New Zealand, and others highlighted the display of sea-based nuclear capabilities amid broader Indo-Pacific tensions. This verifiable recent action, part of established PLA missile development patterns, aligns with the 70% implied probability traders assign to at least one additional ballistic missile launch occurring before year-end, reflecting expectations of continued routine exercises rather than any single confirmed schedule.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volume
$955Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...China’s July 6 submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, carrying a dummy warhead, underscores the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s ongoing strategic modernization and testing cadence. Regional responses from the United States, Australia, New Zealand, and others highlighted the display of sea-based nuclear capabilities amid broader Indo-Pacific tensions. This verifiable recent action, part of established PLA missile development patterns, aligns with the 70% implied probability traders assign to at least one additional ballistic missile launch occurring before year-end, reflecting expectations of continued routine exercises rather than any single confirmed schedule.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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