Recent reports of U.S. construction beginning on a large facility near the Gaza border at Re'im, combined with deployments of F-22s and other assets to Israeli airbases and expanded use of Ben Gurion Airport for military purposes, have supported expectations of a formal announcement. At the same time, congressional debates over deeper defense integration in the FY2027 NDAA, Israel's historical preference for self-reliance without permanent foreign bases, and ongoing negotiations on aid and cooperation frameworks create offsetting uncertainty. The 50% implied probability reflects this balance between concrete infrastructure steps and the absence of an official sovereign-base declaration by U.S. or Israeli leadership. Further progress on tenders or joint statements could raise the odds, while delays from budget reviews or political opposition could lower them.
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will maintain a military presence within the territory of Israel, beyond any presence which may exist at the time of creation of this market, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives. Recent reports of U.S. construction beginning on a large facility near the Gaza border at Re'im, combined with deployments of F-22s and other assets to Israeli airbases and expanded use of Ben Gurion Airport for military purposes, have supported expectations of a formal announcement. At the same time, congressional debates over deeper defense integration in the FY2027 NDAA, Israel's historical preference for self-reliance without permanent foreign bases, and ongoing negotiations on aid and cooperation frameworks create offsetting uncertainty. The 50% implied probability reflects this balance between concrete infrastructure steps and the absence of an official sovereign-base declaration by U.S. or Israeli leadership. Further progress on tenders or joint statements could raise the odds, while delays from budget reviews or political opposition could lower them.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will maintain a military presence within the territory of Israel, beyond any presence which may exist at the time of creation of this market, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.
A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 1, 2026, 4:57 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 1, 2026, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will maintain a military presence within the territory of Israel, beyond any presence which may exist at the time of creation of this market, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives. Recent reports of U.S. construction beginning on a large facility near the Gaza border at Re'im, combined with deployments of F-22s and other assets to Israeli airbases and expanded use of Ben Gurion Airport for military purposes, have supported expectations of a formal announcement. At the same time, congressional debates over deeper defense integration in the FY2027 NDAA, Israel's historical preference for self-reliance without permanent foreign bases, and ongoing negotiations on aid and cooperation frameworks create offsetting uncertainty. The 50% implied probability reflects this balance between concrete infrastructure steps and the absence of an official sovereign-base declaration by U.S. or Israeli leadership. Further progress on tenders or joint statements could raise the odds, while delays from budget reviews or political opposition could lower them.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will maintain a military presence within the territory of Israel, beyond any presence which may exist at the time of creation of this market, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.
A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 1, 2026, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent reports of U.S. construction beginning on a large facility near the Gaza border at Re'im, combined with deployments of F-22s and other assets to Israeli airbases and expanded use of Ben Gurion Airport for military purposes, have supported expectations of a formal announcement. At the same time, congressional debates over deeper defense integration in the FY2027 NDAA, Israel's historical preference for self-reliance without permanent foreign bases, and ongoing negotiations on aid and cooperation frameworks create offsetting uncertainty. The 50% implied probability reflects this balance between concrete infrastructure steps and the absence of an official sovereign-base declaration by U.S. or Israeli leadership. Further progress on tenders or joint statements could raise the odds, while delays from budget reviews or political opposition could lower them.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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