Skip to main content
icon for Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?
Politics·House

Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?

icon for Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?
Politics·House

Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?

42% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
42% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Divided congressional priorities and recent committee outcomes on the FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act have kept the House evenly split on legislation that would limit or condition defense article transfers to Israel. Bipartisan amendments seeking restrictions, including efforts tied to appropriations measures and resolutions like H.R. 3565, have surfaced amid negotiations over a new bilateral aid framework, yet leadership opposition and failed attempts to strip integration provisions signal sustained resistance. The narrow window through September 30 leaves room for floor votes during defense spending debates or supplemental packages, where shifts in whip counts, progressive Democratic pressure, or Republican holds could alter passage odds either way. Trader consensus at even money reflects these procedural uncertainties and competing party dynamics ahead of scheduled markup and floor action.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Divided congressional priorities and recent committee outcomes on the FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act have kept the House evenly split on legislation that would limit or condition defense article transfers to Israel. Bipartisan amendments seeking restrictions, including efforts tied to appropriations measures and resolutions like H.R. 3565, have surfaced amid negotiations over a new bilateral aid framework, yet leadership opposition and failed attempts to strip integration provisions signal sustained resistance. The narrow window through September 30 leaves room for floor votes during defense spending debates or supplemental packages, where shifts in whip counts, progressive Democratic pressure, or Republican holds could alter passage odds either way. Trader consensus at even money reflects these procedural uncertainties and competing party dynamics ahead of scheduled markup and floor action.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jun 29, 2026, 3:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 42% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 42¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 42% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Jun 29, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?" adalah 42% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 42% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.