Trader consensus prices the top outcome—any active U.S. House member entering Iran's terrestrial territory by June 30—at just 5%, reflecting entrenched U.S.-Iran hostilities amid a fragile ceasefire violated on May 7 and President Trump's stern warnings on May 13 against further provocations. Escalation traces to U.S.-led Operation Epic Fury airstrikes on February 28, followed by persistent military standoffs, Gulf states' strikes on Iranian targets, and Tehran's bolstered IRGC ground defenses preparing for potential coastal incursions via the Strait of Hormuz. No serving lawmakers, senators like Marco Rubio, or officials including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have announced visits, with congressional focus on hearings criticizing war costs rather than diplomacy. Upcoming Hormuz blockade risks or stalled talks could further entrench barriers to entry.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$387,428 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Any U.S. House member
5%
Any U.S. Senator
3%
Jared Kushner
2%
Marco Rubio
2%
Pete Hegseth
2%
JD Vance
1%
Benjamin Netanyahu
1%
Donald Trump
<1%
$387,428 Vol.
Any U.S. House member
$86,764 Vol.
5%
Any U.S. Senator
$29,990 Vol.
3%
Jared Kushner
$15,604 Vol.
2%
Marco Rubio
$21,470 Vol.
2%
Pete Hegseth
$92,649 Vol.
2%
JD Vance
$30,931 Vol.
1%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$42,282 Vol.
1%
Donald Trump
$67,738 Vol.
<1%
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices the top outcome—any active U.S. House member entering Iran's terrestrial territory by June 30—at just 5%, reflecting entrenched U.S.-Iran hostilities amid a fragile ceasefire violated on May 7 and President Trump's stern warnings on May 13 against further provocations. Escalation traces to U.S.-led Operation Epic Fury airstrikes on February 28, followed by persistent military standoffs, Gulf states' strikes on Iranian targets, and Tehran's bolstered IRGC ground defenses preparing for potential coastal incursions via the Strait of Hormuz. No serving lawmakers, senators like Marco Rubio, or officials including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have announced visits, with congressional focus on hearings criticizing war costs rather than diplomacy. Upcoming Hormuz blockade risks or stalled talks could further entrench barriers to entry.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$387,428Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices the top outcome—any active U.S. House member entering Iran's terrestrial territory by June 30—at just 5%, reflecting entrenched U.S.-Iran hostilities amid a fragile ceasefire violated on May 7 and President Trump's stern warnings on May 13 against further provocations. Escalation traces to U.S.-led Operation Epic Fury airstrikes on February 28, followed by persistent military standoffs, Gulf states' strikes on Iranian targets, and Tehran's bolstered IRGC ground defenses preparing for potential coastal incursions via the Strait of Hormuz. No serving lawmakers, senators like Marco Rubio, or officials including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have announced visits, with congressional focus on hearings criticizing war costs rather than diplomacy. Upcoming Hormuz blockade risks or stalled talks could further entrench barriers to entry.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$387,428Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices the top outcome—any active U.S. House member entering Iran's terrestrial territory by June 30—at just 5%, reflecting entrenched U.S.-Iran hostilities amid a fragile ceasefire violated on May 7 and President Trump's stern warnings on May 13 against further provocations. Escalation traces to U.S.-led Operation Epic Fury airstrikes on February 28, followed by persistent military standoffs, Gulf states' strikes on Iranian targets, and Tehran's bolstered IRGC ground defenses preparing for potential coastal incursions via the Strait of Hormuz. No serving lawmakers, senators like Marco Rubio, or officials including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have announced visits, with congressional focus on hearings criticizing war costs rather than diplomacy. Upcoming Hormuz blockade risks or stalled talks could further entrench barriers to entry.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan