**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and Iranian assertions of control over the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress commercial traffic, supporting the 58% trader consensus on "No" for normalization by July 15.** Since late February 2026, when US and Israeli strikes on Iran began, daily transits have fallen from roughly 125-160 vessels to single digits or near zero, with effective closure or severe restrictions persisting through early June. Iran’s IRGC has coordinated limited passages under its authority, imposed vetting or fees, and issued closure orders as recently as June 10, while recent incidents—including US strikes on Iranian targets, drone interceptions, and attacks on vessels—have heightened security risks and uncertainty. Negotiations remain stalled over sanctions relief and terms for reopening, despite occasional signals of a possible deal; even if signed soon, demining, escort arrangements, and restored confidence among shippers would likely require additional time. These factors explain why markets price a substantial probability that pre-conflict traffic levels will not resume by mid-July.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
BARU
$54,608 Vol.
BARU
$54,608 Vol.
Jul 15, 2026
BARU
$54,608 Vol.
BARU
$54,608 Vol.
Jul 15, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and Iranian assertions of control over the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress commercial traffic, supporting the 58% trader consensus on "No" for normalization by July 15.**
Since late February 2026, when US and Israeli strikes on Iran began, daily transits have fallen from roughly 125-160 vessels to single digits or near zero, with effective closure or severe restrictions persisting through early June. Iran’s IRGC has coordinated limited passages under its authority, imposed vetting or fees, and issued closure orders as recently as June 10, while recent incidents—including US strikes on Iranian targets, drone interceptions, and attacks on vessels—have heightened security risks and uncertainty.
Negotiations remain stalled over sanctions relief and terms for reopening, despite occasional signals of a possible deal; even if signed soon, demining, escort arrangements, and restored confidence among shippers would likely require additional time. These factors explain why markets price a substantial probability that pre-conflict traffic levels will not resume by mid-July.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 13, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$54,608Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 13, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and Iranian assertions of control over the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress commercial traffic, supporting the 58% trader consensus on "No" for normalization by July 15.**
Since late February 2026, when US and Israeli strikes on Iran began, daily transits have fallen from roughly 125-160 vessels to single digits or near zero, with effective closure or severe restrictions persisting through early June. Iran’s IRGC has coordinated limited passages under its authority, imposed vetting or fees, and issued closure orders as recently as June 10, while recent incidents—including US strikes on Iranian targets, drone interceptions, and attacks on vessels—have heightened security risks and uncertainty.
Negotiations remain stalled over sanctions relief and terms for reopening, despite occasional signals of a possible deal; even if signed soon, demining, escort arrangements, and restored confidence among shippers would likely require additional time. These factors explain why markets price a substantial probability that pre-conflict traffic levels will not resume by mid-July.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$54,642Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 13, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and Iranian assertions of control over the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress commercial traffic, supporting the 58% trader consensus on "No" for normalization by July 15.** Since late February 2026, when US and Israeli strikes on Iran began, daily transits have fallen from roughly 125-160 vessels to single digits or near zero, with effective closure or severe restrictions persisting through early June. Iran’s IRGC has coordinated limited passages under its authority, imposed vetting or fees, and issued closure orders as recently as June 10, while recent incidents—including US strikes on Iranian targets, drone interceptions, and attacks on vessels—have heightened security risks and uncertainty. Negotiations remain stalled over sanctions relief and terms for reopening, despite occasional signals of a possible deal; even if signed soon, demining, escort arrangements, and restored confidence among shippers would likely require additional time. These factors explain why markets price a substantial probability that pre-conflict traffic levels will not resume by mid-July.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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