Regional tensions involving Iran and maritime security in the Persian Gulf continue to shape trader assessments of weekly vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz. With no major confirmed disruptions or escalations reported in the immediate lead-up to the June 15 period, markets price in baseline seasonal traffic levels tempered by uncertainty over potential sanctions enforcement, naval deployments, or proxy-related incidents. The close clustering of probabilities across the 25-49, 50-74, and 75-99 ranges reflects ongoing volatility in oil shipping routes and the absence of decisive signals on whether commercial operators will reroute or maintain normal patterns. Scheduled diplomatic or military announcements in the coming days could quickly widen spreads by altering risk perceptions for tanker movements.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 15?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 15?
25-49 42%
75-99 39%
100+ 38%
50-74 37%
BARU
BARU
Jun 21, 2026
<25
29%
25-49
42%
50-74
37%
75-99
39%
100+
38%
25-49 42%
75-99 39%
100+ 38%
50-74 37%
BARU
BARU
Jun 21, 2026
<25
$0 Vol.
29%
25-49
$0 Vol.
42%
50-74
$3 Vol.
37%
75-99
$0 Vol.
39%
100+
$0 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 15, 2026, through June 21, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Regional tensions involving Iran and maritime security in the Persian Gulf continue to shape trader assessments of weekly vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz. With no major confirmed disruptions or escalations reported in the immediate lead-up to the June 15 period, markets price in baseline seasonal traffic levels tempered by uncertainty over potential sanctions enforcement, naval deployments, or proxy-related incidents. The close clustering of probabilities across the 25-49, 50-74, and 75-99 ranges reflects ongoing volatility in oil shipping routes and the absence of decisive signals on whether commercial operators will reroute or maintain normal patterns. Scheduled diplomatic or military announcements in the coming days could quickly widen spreads by altering risk perceptions for tanker movements.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 15, 2026, through June 21, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$3Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 15, 2026, through June 21, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Regional tensions involving Iran and maritime security in the Persian Gulf continue to shape trader assessments of weekly vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz. With no major confirmed disruptions or escalations reported in the immediate lead-up to the June 15 period, markets price in baseline seasonal traffic levels tempered by uncertainty over potential sanctions enforcement, naval deployments, or proxy-related incidents. The close clustering of probabilities across the 25-49, 50-74, and 75-99 ranges reflects ongoing volatility in oil shipping routes and the absence of decisive signals on whether commercial operators will reroute or maintain normal patterns. Scheduled diplomatic or military announcements in the coming days could quickly widen spreads by altering risk perceptions for tanker movements.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 15, 2026, through June 21, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$3Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Regional tensions involving Iran and maritime security in the Persian Gulf continue to shape trader assessments of weekly vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz. With no major confirmed disruptions or escalations reported in the immediate lead-up to the June 15 period, markets price in baseline seasonal traffic levels tempered by uncertainty over potential sanctions enforcement, naval deployments, or proxy-related incidents. The close clustering of probabilities across the 25-49, 50-74, and 75-99 ranges reflects ongoing volatility in oil shipping routes and the absence of decisive signals on whether commercial operators will reroute or maintain normal patterns. Scheduled diplomatic or military announcements in the coming days could quickly widen spreads by altering risk perceptions for tanker movements.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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