Skip to main content
icon for Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
GeopolitikΒ·Iran

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?

icon for Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
GeopolitikΒ·Iran

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?

$9,371,485 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$9,371,485 Vol.

Polymarket

June 30

$3,563,008 Vol.

3%

July 31

$853,988 Vol.

12%

This market will resolve to β€œYes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to β€œNo”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon, aimed at a permanent ceasefire and security arrangements including Hezbollah disarmament and Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, have produced repeated short-term truces since April 2026 but no binding agreement. Hezbollah rejected the latest Washington-brokered proposal in early June, insisting on full Israeli pullback and criticizing terms as insufficient, while cross-border strikes and violations have continued on both sides. These negotiations are tightly linked to the emerging US-Iran framework agreement, which calls for ending operations in Lebanon, yet Israel has signaled reluctance to withdraw forces immediately. A next round of talks is scheduled for late June, but persistent gaps over enforcement mechanisms, Litani River zone control, and Lebanese army deployment keep the prospects for a comprehensive, lasting deal by mid-2026 limited.

This market will resolve to β€œYes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to β€œNo”.

A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.

A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:

- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.

- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.

The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,371,485
Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
May 25, 2026, 11:16 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to β€œYes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to β€œNo”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to β€œYes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to β€œNo”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon, aimed at a permanent ceasefire and security arrangements including Hezbollah disarmament and Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, have produced repeated short-term truces since April 2026 but no binding agreement. Hezbollah rejected the latest Washington-brokered proposal in early June, insisting on full Israeli pullback and criticizing terms as insufficient, while cross-border strikes and violations have continued on both sides. These negotiations are tightly linked to the emerging US-Iran framework agreement, which calls for ending operations in Lebanon, yet Israel has signaled reluctance to withdraw forces immediately. A next round of talks is scheduled for late June, but persistent gaps over enforcement mechanisms, Litani River zone control, and Lebanese army deployment keep the prospects for a comprehensive, lasting deal by mid-2026 limited.

This market will resolve to β€œYes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to β€œNo”.

A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.

A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:

- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.

- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.

The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,371,485
Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
May 25, 2026, 11:16 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to β€œYes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to β€œNo”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 5 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "July 31" di 12%, diikuti oleh "June 30" di 3%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 12Β’ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 12% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?" telah menghasilkan $9.4 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Apr 16, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?," jelajahi 5 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?" adalah "July 31" di 12%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 12% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "June 30" di 3%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang β€” termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.