Traders assign a 98.7 percent probability that China will not invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any detectable large-scale amphibious preparations or troop surges across the Taiwan Strait in the brief remaining window. Beijing’s military modernization has proceeded gradually through routine exercises and capability upgrades rather than sudden mobilization, while economic interdependence and active diplomatic channels between Taipei and the mainland continue to function. U.S. security commitments and allied naval presence in the region add further layers of deterrence that would require extensive concealment to overcome. An invasion on this compressed timeline faces insurmountable logistical barriers, including sealift requirements and vulnerability to early detection. Late-breaking incidents, such as an unexpected cross-strait crisis or abrupt policy reversal, remain theoretically possible yet lack supporting indicators at present.