Trader consensus favors no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027 at 79.5%, reflecting a pattern of sustained gray-zone tactics in the South China Sea that stop short of armed conflict. Recent developments, including mutual accusations over a May 3 reef landing at Xianbin Jiao, Chinese coast guard barriers at Scarborough Shoal in April, and a March warship near-miss, involve collisions, water cannons, and research vessel standoffs but no live fire or PLA troop deployments. China's navy drills during the US-Philippines Balikatan 2026 exercises prompted diplomatic protests rather than escalation, bolstered by provisional resupply arrangements at Second Thomas Shoal and bilateral hotlines. US mutual defense treaty commitments and ASEAN-China code of conduct talks further deter crossing red lines amid ongoing patrols.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$333,274 Vol.
$333,274 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$333,274 Vol.
$333,274 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027 at 79.5%, reflecting a pattern of sustained gray-zone tactics in the South China Sea that stop short of armed conflict. Recent developments, including mutual accusations over a May 3 reef landing at Xianbin Jiao, Chinese coast guard barriers at Scarborough Shoal in April, and a March warship near-miss, involve collisions, water cannons, and research vessel standoffs but no live fire or PLA troop deployments. China's navy drills during the US-Philippines Balikatan 2026 exercises prompted diplomatic protests rather than escalation, bolstered by provisional resupply arrangements at Second Thomas Shoal and bilateral hotlines. US mutual defense treaty commitments and ASEAN-China code of conduct talks further deter crossing red lines amid ongoing patrols.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
Volume
$333,274Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027 at 79.5%, reflecting a pattern of sustained gray-zone tactics in the South China Sea that stop short of armed conflict. Recent developments, including mutual accusations over a May 3 reef landing at Xianbin Jiao, Chinese coast guard barriers at Scarborough Shoal in April, and a March warship near-miss, involve collisions, water cannons, and research vessel standoffs but no live fire or PLA troop deployments. China's navy drills during the US-Philippines Balikatan 2026 exercises prompted diplomatic protests rather than escalation, bolstered by provisional resupply arrangements at Second Thomas Shoal and bilateral hotlines. US mutual defense treaty commitments and ASEAN-China code of conduct talks further deter crossing red lines amid ongoing patrols.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$333,274Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027 at 79.5%, reflecting a pattern of sustained gray-zone tactics in the South China Sea that stop short of armed conflict. Recent developments, including mutual accusations over a May 3 reef landing at Xianbin Jiao, Chinese coast guard barriers at Scarborough Shoal in April, and a March warship near-miss, involve collisions, water cannons, and research vessel standoffs but no live fire or PLA troop deployments. China's navy drills during the US-Philippines Balikatan 2026 exercises prompted diplomatic protests rather than escalation, bolstered by provisional resupply arrangements at Second Thomas Shoal and bilateral hotlines. US mutual defense treaty commitments and ASEAN-China code of conduct talks further deter crossing red lines amid ongoing patrols.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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