Xi Jinping's sustained consolidation of authority through repeated military purges and centralized party control underpins trader consensus that no coup attempt will occur before 2027. Recent developments, including the early 2026 removal of senior generals such as Zhang Youxia without triggering broader unrest, reinforce perceptions of elite cohesion and effective suppression of factional challenges ahead of the next major party congress cycle. China's opaque leadership structures and emphasis on national security have historically contained internal rivalries, limiting realistic pathways for organized dissent in the remaining months. Potential shifts could still arise from unforeseen elite defections, acute economic pressures, or health-related succession crises, though these remain low-probability events given current institutional safeguards.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui4% peluang
$153,750 Vol.
$153,750 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% peluang
$153,750 Vol.
$153,750 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping's sustained consolidation of authority through repeated military purges and centralized party control underpins trader consensus that no coup attempt will occur before 2027. Recent developments, including the early 2026 removal of senior generals such as Zhang Youxia without triggering broader unrest, reinforce perceptions of elite cohesion and effective suppression of factional challenges ahead of the next major party congress cycle. China's opaque leadership structures and emphasis on national security have historically contained internal rivalries, limiting realistic pathways for organized dissent in the remaining months. Potential shifts could still arise from unforeseen elite defections, acute economic pressures, or health-related succession crises, though these remain low-probability events given current institutional safeguards.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$153,750Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping's sustained consolidation of authority through repeated military purges and centralized party control underpins trader consensus that no coup attempt will occur before 2027. Recent developments, including the early 2026 removal of senior generals such as Zhang Youxia without triggering broader unrest, reinforce perceptions of elite cohesion and effective suppression of factional challenges ahead of the next major party congress cycle. China's opaque leadership structures and emphasis on national security have historically contained internal rivalries, limiting realistic pathways for organized dissent in the remaining months. Potential shifts could still arise from unforeseen elite defections, acute economic pressures, or health-related succession crises, though these remain low-probability events given current institutional safeguards.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$153,750Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping's sustained consolidation of authority through repeated military purges and centralized party control underpins trader consensus that no coup attempt will occur before 2027. Recent developments, including the early 2026 removal of senior generals such as Zhang Youxia without triggering broader unrest, reinforce perceptions of elite cohesion and effective suppression of factional challenges ahead of the next major party congress cycle. China's opaque leadership structures and emphasis on national security have historically contained internal rivalries, limiting realistic pathways for organized dissent in the remaining months. Potential shifts could still arise from unforeseen elite defections, acute economic pressures, or health-related succession crises, though these remain low-probability events given current institutional safeguards.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan