Following the February-March 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several senior military commanders, Iranian authorities reported multiple arrests of alleged foreign-linked networks planning sabotage and unrest, including claims tied to January disturbances. Hardline factions within the regime raised internal alarms about power consolidation by figures such as President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf during the leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, with some describing negotiations and decision-making shifts as a potential soft coup. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps expanded its role in security and policy amid the conflict. These factional tensions and foiled-plot announcements shaped trader views on whether any events met criteria for a coordinated military or state-actor effort to seize control, with upcoming diplomatic or protest developments in the resolution window serving as potential catalysts.