Recent polling from late August through mid-September places Renan Santos, the Mission Party candidate, between 2% and 4% in first-round scenarios ahead of the October 4 vote, reflecting his positioning as an outsider right-wing alternative critical of both the Workers’ Party and established Bolsonarist figures. His candidacy received unanimous TSE validation in early September after earlier procedural pauses were lifted, enabling continued rallies, digital outreach targeting younger voters, and policy emphasis on security, fiscal adjustment, and institutional reform. These factors have sustained modest but stable support without evidence of rapid consolidation or erosion, aligning trader consensus on the 2-4% and 4-6% bands as the most probable outcomes given the short campaign window and competition from higher-polling contenders.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui2-4% 42%
4-6% 22%
<2% 19%
6-8% 14.5%
$63,491 Vol.
$63,491 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
<2%
19%
2-4%
42%
4-6%
22%
6-8%
8%
8%+
11%
2-4% 42%
4-6% 22%
<2% 19%
6-8% 14.5%
$63,491 Vol.
$63,491 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
<2%
$813 Vol.
19%
2-4%
$2,053 Vol.
42%
4-6%
$2,848 Vol.
22%
6-8%
$602 Vol.
8%
8%+
$57,175 Vol.
11%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from late August through mid-September places Renan Santos, the Mission Party candidate, between 2% and 4% in first-round scenarios ahead of the October 4 vote, reflecting his positioning as an outsider right-wing alternative critical of both the Workers’ Party and established Bolsonarist figures. His candidacy received unanimous TSE validation in early September after earlier procedural pauses were lifted, enabling continued rallies, digital outreach targeting younger voters, and policy emphasis on security, fiscal adjustment, and institutional reform. These factors have sustained modest but stable support without evidence of rapid consolidation or erosion, aligning trader consensus on the 2-4% and 4-6% bands as the most probable outcomes given the short campaign window and competition from higher-polling contenders.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET
Volume
$63,491Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 5, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from late August through mid-September places Renan Santos, the Mission Party candidate, between 2% and 4% in first-round scenarios ahead of the October 4 vote, reflecting his positioning as an outsider right-wing alternative critical of both the Workers’ Party and established Bolsonarist figures. His candidacy received unanimous TSE validation in early September after earlier procedural pauses were lifted, enabling continued rallies, digital outreach targeting younger voters, and policy emphasis on security, fiscal adjustment, and institutional reform. These factors have sustained modest but stable support without evidence of rapid consolidation or erosion, aligning trader consensus on the 2-4% and 4-6% bands as the most probable outcomes given the short campaign window and competition from higher-polling contenders.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$63,491Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 5, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from late August through mid-September places Renan Santos, the Mission Party candidate, between 2% and 4% in first-round scenarios ahead of the October 4 vote, reflecting his positioning as an outsider right-wing alternative critical of both the Workers’ Party and established Bolsonarist figures. His candidacy received unanimous TSE validation in early September after earlier procedural pauses were lifted, enabling continued rallies, digital outreach targeting younger voters, and policy emphasis on security, fiscal adjustment, and institutional reform. These factors have sustained modest but stable support without evidence of rapid consolidation or erosion, aligning trader consensus on the 2-4% and 4-6% bands as the most probable outcomes given the short campaign window and competition from higher-polling contenders.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTerkait
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