Incumbent Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 52% implied probability for the October 4, 2026, Bahia gubernatorial election first round, reflecting his strong municipal base—356 allied prefeitos—and 51% Quaest approval for re-election amid Bahia's PT stronghold since 2006. Challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil), former Salvador mayor, trails at 48% but leads recent Paraná Pesquisas (47.8% to 38.7% as of May 13) and some April polls like Quaest and Veritá, fueled by critiques of state management and Carlismo appeal in urban areas. Mixed surveys, national alliances, and undecided voters (10-14%) sustain the tight contest; shifts could arise from endorsements, economic data, or scandals before the runoff deadline.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBahia Governor Election Winner
Bahia Governor Election Winner
Jerônimo Rodrigues 52%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,682 Vol.
$13,682 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
52%
ACM Neto
48%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 52%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,682 Vol.
$13,682 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$3,666 Vol.
52%
ACM Neto
$3,648 Vol.
48%
Kleber Rosa
$1,281 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$966 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$1,060 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$1,938 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,124 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 52% implied probability for the October 4, 2026, Bahia gubernatorial election first round, reflecting his strong municipal base—356 allied prefeitos—and 51% Quaest approval for re-election amid Bahia's PT stronghold since 2006. Challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil), former Salvador mayor, trails at 48% but leads recent Paraná Pesquisas (47.8% to 38.7% as of May 13) and some April polls like Quaest and Veritá, fueled by critiques of state management and Carlismo appeal in urban areas. Mixed surveys, national alliances, and undecided voters (10-14%) sustain the tight contest; shifts could arise from endorsements, economic data, or scandals before the runoff deadline.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$13,682Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 52% implied probability for the October 4, 2026, Bahia gubernatorial election first round, reflecting his strong municipal base—356 allied prefeitos—and 51% Quaest approval for re-election amid Bahia's PT stronghold since 2006. Challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil), former Salvador mayor, trails at 48% but leads recent Paraná Pesquisas (47.8% to 38.7% as of May 13) and some April polls like Quaest and Veritá, fueled by critiques of state management and Carlismo appeal in urban areas. Mixed surveys, national alliances, and undecided voters (10-14%) sustain the tight contest; shifts could arise from endorsements, economic data, or scandals before the runoff deadline.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$13,682Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 52% implied probability for the October 4, 2026, Bahia gubernatorial election first round, reflecting his strong municipal base—356 allied prefeitos—and 51% Quaest approval for re-election amid Bahia's PT stronghold since 2006. Challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil), former Salvador mayor, trails at 48% but leads recent Paraná Pesquisas (47.8% to 38.7% as of May 13) and some April polls like Quaest and Veritá, fueled by critiques of state management and Carlismo appeal in urban areas. Mixed surveys, national alliances, and undecided voters (10-14%) sustain the tight contest; shifts could arise from endorsements, economic data, or scandals before the runoff deadline.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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