Traders assign a 63.5 percent probability that the proposed one-time 5 percent wealth tax on California billionaires will fail to pass in November 2026, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in the ballot qualification process and voter dynamics. Supporters recently submitted more than 1.5 million signatures—well above the roughly 875,000 needed—leaving verification by the Secretary of State until late June, while early surveys indicate narrow initial backing near 52 percent. Opposition has intensified through legal analyses questioning constitutionality, economic studies projecting significant revenue shortfalls from resident departures, and federal legislative efforts to limit retroactive application. These factors, combined with California’s history of closely contested tax measures, sustain the current trader consensus favoring rejection even if the initiative reaches the ballot.