Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (RegistradurΓa Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's May 31 presidential election remains tightly contested among leading candidates, with trader consensus reflecting a narrow edge for the top contender amid a fragmented field and polarized electorate. IvΓ‘n Cepeda, backed by the governing Historic Pact and positioned as a continuation of current policies, competes closely with Abelardo de la Espriella, the right-wing outsider emphasizing anti-establishment reforms, while center-right Paloma Valencia draws support from Democratic Center voters. Recent congressional primaries and legislative results have clarified party alignments but highlighted security concerns, including violence that has prompted scaled-back campaigning and raised turnout questions in key regions. Upcoming final rallies and any late shifts in voter mobilization could widen margins ahead of a potential June runoff, as historical patterns show Colombian races often hinge on last-minute consolidation among swing blocs.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (RegistradurΓa Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (RegistradurΓa Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's May 31 presidential election remains tightly contested among leading candidates, with trader consensus reflecting a narrow edge for the top contender amid a fragmented field and polarized electorate. IvΓ‘n Cepeda, backed by the governing Historic Pact and positioned as a continuation of current policies, competes closely with Abelardo de la Espriella, the right-wing outsider emphasizing anti-establishment reforms, while center-right Paloma Valencia draws support from Democratic Center voters. Recent congressional primaries and legislative results have clarified party alignments but highlighted security concerns, including violence that has prompted scaled-back campaigning and raised turnout questions in key regions. Upcoming final rallies and any late shifts in voter mobilization could widen margins ahead of a potential June runoff, as historical patterns show Colombian races often hinge on last-minute consolidation among swing blocs.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. Β· Diperbarui
May 15 2026
Late surge for Abelardo de la Espriella ahead of election day
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 44%16%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market probability rebounded to 44% on election day, indicating a late surge in voter support possibly due to final campaign efforts and strategic messaging.
May 13 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella surges in polls with tough stance on crime
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 44%16%
Abelardo de la Espriella's poll numbers surged as he emphasized a hardline approach against criminal groups, appealing to voters concerned about security. This caused a significant market price increase for his candidacy.
Apr 19 2026
Paloma Valencia's support peaks amid growing media attention
Paloma Valencia rises to 44%4%
Media coverage and public interest pushed Paloma Valencia's market probability to a peak of 44%, reflecting heightened visibility and voter engagement.
Apr 15 2026
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro maintains lead in polls amid campaign intensification
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 41%3%
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro sustained his lead in polls as the campaign intensified, reflecting continued voter support for the left-wing candidate. This stability was mirrored in market prices, reinforcing his frontrunner status.
Apr 1 2026
Colombian city Cartagena replaces horse buggies with electric carriages amid protests
Cartagena's move to replace horse-drawn buggies with electric carriages following animal welfare protests reflects social and cultural shifts in Colombia, indirectly influencing public sentiment and political discourse during the election period, with minor impact on candidate standings.
Mar 25 2026
Small plane crash kills Colombian congress member DiΓ³genes Quintero
The death of congressman DiΓ³genes Quintero in a plane crash was a significant event affecting political dynamics, potentially influencing voter sentiment and candidate support.
Mar 25 2026
Paloma Valencia's campaign surges after major policy announcement
Paloma Valencia surges to 41%32%
Paloma Valencia's market probability rose sharply from 9% to 41% following a major policy announcement that resonated with voters, marking her as a significant contender.
Mar 18 2026
Small plane crash in Colombia kills 15 including congress member
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro dips to 41%3%
A tragic plane crash killed 15 people including a congressman and a congressional candidate, causing political shockwaves and impacting the election dynamics, particularly affecting the market confidence in IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro and Abelardo de la Espriella as political stability concerns rose.
Mar 17 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella faces controversy, causing sharp drop in support
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 10%23%
A controversy involving Abelardo de la Espriella led to a significant drop in his market probability from 33% to 10%, indicating voter backlash and uncertainty about his candidacy.
Mar 12 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe launches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%8%
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a defender of his sonβs legacy and entering a crowded field, which boosted interest in candidates perceived as rivals or allies, notably affecting Abelardo de la Espriellaβs support.
Mar 10 2026
Market reacts to narrowing candidate field ahead of March primaries
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 28%10%
As the field of presidential candidates narrowed in early March with interparty primaries, market prices adjusted to reflect the changing competitive landscape, notably affecting Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia's standings.
Feb 28 2026
DEA labels President Gustavo Petro a priority target in drug investigation
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 40%2%
The U.S. DEAβs designation of President Petro as a priority target raised concerns about his administrationβs integrity, leading to a decline in support for candidates aligned with his coalition, particularly impacting IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castroβs odds.
Feb 28 2026
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro surges in polls amid growing grassroots support
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro jumps to 50%11%
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro's market probability jumped to 50% as grassroots movements and endorsements bolstered his campaign, signaling a shift in voter sentiment.
Feb 28 2026
Political violence impacts candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay's legacy
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 30%8%
The assassination of Miguel Uribe Turbay in 2025 continued to resonate in the political landscape, with his father's candidacy and the unresolved motives behind the killing influencing voter sentiment and market prices for related candidates.
Jan 30 2026
Colombian President Gustavo Petro optimistic about upcoming White House meeting with Trump
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 38%4%
President Petro expressed optimism about a scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, signaling a diplomatic thaw after months of tension and sanctions, which influenced market perceptions of political stability and candidate viability, particularly benefiting IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro.
Jan 28 2026
Colombian President Petro optimistic about upcoming White House meeting with Trump
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 42%4%
President Gustavo Petro expressed optimism about a scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, signaling a diplomatic thaw that influenced market confidence in candidates associated with Petro's coalition, including IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro.
Jan 15 2026
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro gains momentum in polls amid left-wing coalition support
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro surges to 39%19%
Senator IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro, representing the Historical Pact coalition, gained significant support in polls, reflecting his rising prominence as a leading left-wing candidate. This surge influenced market prices, positioning him as a top contender.
Dec 5 2025
DEA designates Colombian President Gustavo Petro as 'priority target' in drug probe
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 13%7%
The U.S. DEA named President Gustavo Petro a 'priority target' in investigations into alleged drug trafficking ties, causing political uncertainty and affecting the market's perception of candidates aligned with or against Petro, notably IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro.
Nov 20 2025
DEA designates President Gustavo Petro as 'priority target' in drug probe
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 17%9%
The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration named Colombian President Gustavo Petro a 'priority target' in investigations into alleged ties to drug traffickers. This development heightened political tensions and influenced market perceptions of candidates aligned with or opposed to Petro.
Sep 1 2025
Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign gains momentum after strong debate performance
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 56%29%
Following a well-received debate performance, Abelardo de la Espriella's market probability surged from 27% to 56%, reflecting increased voter confidence in his candidacy.
Aug 27 2025
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 44%6%
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o, father of the murdered presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, despite a fallout with the Democratic Center party. This event influenced the market by introducing a new conservative candidate, affecting Abelardo de la Espriella's and IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro's prospects.
Aug 26 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o, father of the killed presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy aiming to defend his son's political legacy, despite leaving the Democratic Center party. This event influenced market perceptions of Abelardo de la Espriella's and IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro's chances, as it introduced a new contender linked to a significant political event.
Aug 26 2025
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o announces presidential bid after son's assassination
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 26%24%
Following the assassination of his son, presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o launched his own presidential campaign to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the market by introducing a new contender from the Democratic Colombia party and shifting support away from other candidates.
Aug 25 2025
Initial polling shows Abelardo de la Espriella and IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro as frontrunners
Early polling data positioned Abelardo de la Espriella and IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro as the leading candidates, each starting with a 50% market probability, reflecting strong initial support and setting the stage for a competitive race.
Aug 20 2025
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o announces presidential bid following son's assassination
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o, father of the murdered candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay, declared his candidacy for Colombia's presidency, aiming to continue his son's political legacy. This announcement shifted market expectations, particularly affecting Abelardo de la Espriella's and IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro's prospects as new dynamics emerged in the race.
Aug 20 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 46%4%
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o, father of the murdered presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the Democratic Center and the broader election dynamics.
Aug 20 2025
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 45%5%
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o, father of the murdered presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, despite falling out with the Democratic Center party. This event increased attention on Uribe LondoΓ±o's campaign, impacting his market price.
Jul 29 2025
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o announces presidential bid honoring slain son
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 26%24%
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o, father of the murdered candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his presidential candidacy, aiming to continue his son's political legacy. This announcement introduced a new dynamic in the race, affecting perceptions of candidates linked to the Democratic Center and shifting market prices.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (RegistradurΓa Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's May 31 presidential election remains tightly contested among leading candidates, with trader consensus reflecting a narrow edge for the top contender amid a fragmented field and polarized electorate. IvΓ‘n Cepeda, backed by the governing Historic Pact and positioned as a continuation of current policies, competes closely with Abelardo de la Espriella, the right-wing outsider emphasizing anti-establishment reforms, while center-right Paloma Valencia draws support from Democratic Center voters. Recent congressional primaries and legislative results have clarified party alignments but highlighted security concerns, including violence that has prompted scaled-back campaigning and raised turnout questions in key regions. Upcoming final rallies and any late shifts in voter mobilization could widen margins ahead of a potential June runoff, as historical patterns show Colombian races often hinge on last-minute consolidation among swing blocs.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (RegistradurΓa Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (RegistradurΓa Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's May 31 presidential election remains tightly contested among leading candidates, with trader consensus reflecting a narrow edge for the top contender amid a fragmented field and polarized electorate. IvΓ‘n Cepeda, backed by the governing Historic Pact and positioned as a continuation of current policies, competes closely with Abelardo de la Espriella, the right-wing outsider emphasizing anti-establishment reforms, while center-right Paloma Valencia draws support from Democratic Center voters. Recent congressional primaries and legislative results have clarified party alignments but highlighted security concerns, including violence that has prompted scaled-back campaigning and raised turnout questions in key regions. Upcoming final rallies and any late shifts in voter mobilization could widen margins ahead of a potential June runoff, as historical patterns show Colombian races often hinge on last-minute consolidation among swing blocs.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. Β· Diperbarui
May 15 2026
Late surge for Abelardo de la Espriella ahead of election day
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 44%16%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market probability rebounded to 44% on election day, indicating a late surge in voter support possibly due to final campaign efforts and strategic messaging.
May 13 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella surges in polls with tough stance on crime
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 44%16%
Abelardo de la Espriella's poll numbers surged as he emphasized a hardline approach against criminal groups, appealing to voters concerned about security. This caused a significant market price increase for his candidacy.
Apr 19 2026
Paloma Valencia's support peaks amid growing media attention
Paloma Valencia rises to 44%4%
Media coverage and public interest pushed Paloma Valencia's market probability to a peak of 44%, reflecting heightened visibility and voter engagement.
Apr 15 2026
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro maintains lead in polls amid campaign intensification
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 41%3%
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro sustained his lead in polls as the campaign intensified, reflecting continued voter support for the left-wing candidate. This stability was mirrored in market prices, reinforcing his frontrunner status.
Apr 1 2026
Colombian city Cartagena replaces horse buggies with electric carriages amid protests
Cartagena's move to replace horse-drawn buggies with electric carriages following animal welfare protests reflects social and cultural shifts in Colombia, indirectly influencing public sentiment and political discourse during the election period, with minor impact on candidate standings.
Mar 25 2026
Small plane crash kills Colombian congress member DiΓ³genes Quintero
The death of congressman DiΓ³genes Quintero in a plane crash was a significant event affecting political dynamics, potentially influencing voter sentiment and candidate support.
Mar 25 2026
Paloma Valencia's campaign surges after major policy announcement
Paloma Valencia surges to 41%32%
Paloma Valencia's market probability rose sharply from 9% to 41% following a major policy announcement that resonated with voters, marking her as a significant contender.
Mar 18 2026
Small plane crash in Colombia kills 15 including congress member
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro dips to 41%3%
A tragic plane crash killed 15 people including a congressman and a congressional candidate, causing political shockwaves and impacting the election dynamics, particularly affecting the market confidence in IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro and Abelardo de la Espriella as political stability concerns rose.
Mar 17 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella faces controversy, causing sharp drop in support
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 10%23%
A controversy involving Abelardo de la Espriella led to a significant drop in his market probability from 33% to 10%, indicating voter backlash and uncertainty about his candidacy.
Mar 12 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe launches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%8%
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a defender of his sonβs legacy and entering a crowded field, which boosted interest in candidates perceived as rivals or allies, notably affecting Abelardo de la Espriellaβs support.
Mar 10 2026
Market reacts to narrowing candidate field ahead of March primaries
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 28%10%
As the field of presidential candidates narrowed in early March with interparty primaries, market prices adjusted to reflect the changing competitive landscape, notably affecting Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia's standings.
Feb 28 2026
DEA labels President Gustavo Petro a priority target in drug investigation
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 40%2%
The U.S. DEAβs designation of President Petro as a priority target raised concerns about his administrationβs integrity, leading to a decline in support for candidates aligned with his coalition, particularly impacting IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castroβs odds.
Feb 28 2026
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro surges in polls amid growing grassroots support
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro jumps to 50%11%
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro's market probability jumped to 50% as grassroots movements and endorsements bolstered his campaign, signaling a shift in voter sentiment.
Feb 28 2026
Political violence impacts candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay's legacy
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 30%8%
The assassination of Miguel Uribe Turbay in 2025 continued to resonate in the political landscape, with his father's candidacy and the unresolved motives behind the killing influencing voter sentiment and market prices for related candidates.
Jan 30 2026
Colombian President Gustavo Petro optimistic about upcoming White House meeting with Trump
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 38%4%
President Petro expressed optimism about a scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, signaling a diplomatic thaw after months of tension and sanctions, which influenced market perceptions of political stability and candidate viability, particularly benefiting IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro.
Jan 28 2026
Colombian President Petro optimistic about upcoming White House meeting with Trump
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro rises to 42%4%
President Gustavo Petro expressed optimism about a scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, signaling a diplomatic thaw that influenced market confidence in candidates associated with Petro's coalition, including IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro.
Jan 15 2026
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro gains momentum in polls amid left-wing coalition support
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro surges to 39%19%
Senator IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro, representing the Historical Pact coalition, gained significant support in polls, reflecting his rising prominence as a leading left-wing candidate. This surge influenced market prices, positioning him as a top contender.
Dec 5 2025
DEA designates Colombian President Gustavo Petro as 'priority target' in drug probe
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 13%7%
The U.S. DEA named President Gustavo Petro a 'priority target' in investigations into alleged drug trafficking ties, causing political uncertainty and affecting the market's perception of candidates aligned with or against Petro, notably IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro.
Nov 20 2025
DEA designates President Gustavo Petro as 'priority target' in drug probe
IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro drops to 17%9%
The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration named Colombian President Gustavo Petro a 'priority target' in investigations into alleged ties to drug traffickers. This development heightened political tensions and influenced market perceptions of candidates aligned with or opposed to Petro.
Sep 1 2025
Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign gains momentum after strong debate performance
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 56%29%
Following a well-received debate performance, Abelardo de la Espriella's market probability surged from 27% to 56%, reflecting increased voter confidence in his candidacy.
Aug 27 2025
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 44%6%
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o, father of the murdered presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, despite a fallout with the Democratic Center party. This event influenced the market by introducing a new conservative candidate, affecting Abelardo de la Espriella's and IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro's prospects.
Aug 26 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o, father of the killed presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy aiming to defend his son's political legacy, despite leaving the Democratic Center party. This event influenced market perceptions of Abelardo de la Espriella's and IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro's chances, as it introduced a new contender linked to a significant political event.
Aug 26 2025
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o announces presidential bid after son's assassination
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 26%24%
Following the assassination of his son, presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o launched his own presidential campaign to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the market by introducing a new contender from the Democratic Colombia party and shifting support away from other candidates.
Aug 25 2025
Initial polling shows Abelardo de la Espriella and IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro as frontrunners
Early polling data positioned Abelardo de la Espriella and IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro as the leading candidates, each starting with a 50% market probability, reflecting strong initial support and setting the stage for a competitive race.
Aug 20 2025
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o announces presidential bid following son's assassination
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o, father of the murdered candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay, declared his candidacy for Colombia's presidency, aiming to continue his son's political legacy. This announcement shifted market expectations, particularly affecting Abelardo de la Espriella's and IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro's prospects as new dynamics emerged in the race.
Aug 20 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 46%4%
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o, father of the murdered presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the Democratic Center and the broader election dynamics.
Aug 20 2025
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 45%5%
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o, father of the murdered presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, despite falling out with the Democratic Center party. This event increased attention on Uribe LondoΓ±o's campaign, impacting his market price.
Jul 29 2025
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o announces presidential bid honoring slain son
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 26%24%
Miguel Uribe LondoΓ±o, father of the murdered candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his presidential candidacy, aiming to continue his son's political legacy. This announcement introduced a new dynamic in the race, affecting perceptions of candidates linked to the Democratic Center and shifting market prices.
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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan
"Pemilihan Presiden Kolombia" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 19 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Abelardo de la Espriella" di 44%, diikuti oleh "IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro" di 42%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 44Β’ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 44% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.
Per hari ini, "Pemilihan Presiden Kolombia" telah menghasilkan $29.2 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jul 29, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.
Untuk trading di "Pemilihan Presiden Kolombia," jelajahi 19 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.
Unggulan saat ini untuk "Pemilihan Presiden Kolombia" adalah "Abelardo de la Espriella" di 44%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 44% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "IvΓ‘n Cepeda Castro" di 42%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.
Aturan resolusi untuk "Pemilihan Presiden Kolombia" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang β termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.
Ya. Kamu tidak perlu trading untuk tetap terinformasi. Halaman ini berfungsi sebagai pelacak langsung untuk "Pemilihan Presiden Kolombia." Probabilitas hasil diperbarui secara real-time saat trade baru masuk. Kamu bisa menandai halaman ini dan memeriksa bagian komentar untuk melihat apa yang dikatakan trader lain. Kamu juga bisa menggunakan filter rentang waktu pada grafik untuk melihat bagaimana peluang bergeser seiring waktu. Ini jendela real-time gratis tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.
Peluang Polymarket ditetapkan oleh trader nyata yang menaruh uang nyata di balik keyakinan mereka, yang cenderung menghasilkan prediksi yang akurat. Dengan $29.2 million diperdagangkan pada "Pemilihan Presiden Kolombia," harga-harga ini mengumpulkan pengetahuan dan keyakinan kolektif dari ribuan peserta β sering kali mengalahkan jajak pendapat, prakiraan ahli, dan survei tradisional. Pasar prediksi seperti Polymarket memiliki rekam jejak akurasi yang kuat, terutama saat event mendekati tanggal resolusinya. Misalnya, Polymarket memiliki skor akurasi satu bulan sebesar 94%. Untuk statistik terbaru tentang akurasi prediksi Polymarket, kunjungi halaman akurasi di Polymarket.
Untuk melakukan trade pertamamu di "Pemilihan Presiden Kolombia," daftar akun Polymarket gratis dan isi dengan crypto, kartu kredit atau debit, atau transfer bank. Setelah akunmu terisi, kembali ke halaman ini, pilih hasil yang ingin kamu trading, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu baru di pasar prediksi, klik link "Cara kerjanya" di bagian atas halaman Polymarket mana pun untuk panduan langkah demi langkah tentang cara trading.
Di Polymarket, harga setiap hasil mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Harga 44Β’ untuk "Abelardo de la Espriella" di pasar "Pemilihan Presiden Kolombia" berarti trader secara kolektif percaya ada sekitar peluang 44% bahwa "Abelardo de la Espriella" akan menjadi hasil yang benar. Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" di 44Β’ dan hasilnya benar, kamu menerima $1,00 per saham β keuntungan 56Β’ per saham. Jika salah, saham tersebut bernilai $0.
Pasar "Pemilihan Presiden Kolombia" dijadwalkan diselesaikan pada atau sekitar Jun 21, 2026. Ini berarti trading akan tetap terbuka dan peluang akan terus bergeser saat informasi baru muncul sampai tanggal tersebut. Waktu resolusi tepat tergantung pada kapan hasil resmi tersedia, seperti diuraikan di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini.
Pasar "Pemilihan Presiden Kolombia" memiliki komunitas aktif dengan 431 komentar di mana trader berbagi analisis, memperdebatkan hasil, dan membahas perkembangan terkini. Scroll ke bawah ke bagian komentar untuk membaca apa yang dipikirkan peserta lain. Kamu juga bisa memfilter berdasarkan "Top Holder" untuk melihat posisi trader terbesar pasar, atau periksa tab "Aktivitas" untuk feed real-time dari trade.
Polymarket adalah pasar prediksi terbesar di dunia, di mana kamu bisa tetap terinformasi dan mendapatkan keuntungan dari pengetahuanmu tentang event dunia nyata. Trader membeli dan menjual saham pada hasil untuk topik mulai dari politik dan pemilu hingga crypto, keuangan, olahraga, teknologi, dan budaya, termasuk pasar seperti "Pemilihan Presiden Kolombia." Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time yang didukung oleh keyakinan finansial, sering kali memberikan sinyal yang lebih cepat dan lebih akurat daripada jajak pendapat, pakar, atau survei tradisional.
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