Arooj Shah leads the market at 62.5% for the largest share of first-preference votes in the 30 July 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, reflecting trader assessments of her Labour candidacy and recent profile after stepping down as Oldham council leader following the May local elections that produced no overall control. Other named contenders such as Bev Craig, Geraldine Coggins, Paul Dennett, Kate Green and additional declared or potential entrants sit lower, consistent with fragmented opposition from Reform UK, Greens and independents amid Labour’s historical dominance in the region. The short campaign timeline, voter registration deadlines and supplementary vote mechanics heighten focus on first-preference consolidation among major parties, while the vacancy created by Andy Burnham’s parliamentary move adds uncertainty over turnout and vote splitting.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiGreater Manchester Mayoral Election: Most 1st Preference Votes
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Most 1st Preference Votes
Bev Craig 83%
Dan Barker 14.1%
Geraldine Coggins 2.4%
Hannah Spencer <1%
BARU
BARU
Jul 30, 2026
Bev Craig
83%
Dan Barker
14%
Geraldine Coggins
2%
Hannah Spencer
1%
Marlon Scott West
1%
Paul Dennett
<1%
Kate Green
<1%
Nick Buckley
<1%
Arooj Shah
<1%
Jake Austin
<1%
Laura Evans
<1%
Bev Craig 83%
Dan Barker 14.1%
Geraldine Coggins 2.4%
Hannah Spencer <1%
BARU
BARU
Jul 30, 2026
Bev Craig
$881 Vol.
83%
Dan Barker
$738 Vol.
14%
Geraldine Coggins
$603 Vol.
2%
Hannah Spencer
$1,044 Vol.
1%
Marlon Scott West
$465 Vol.
1%
Paul Dennett
$451 Vol.
<1%
Kate Green
$425 Vol.
<1%
Nick Buckley
$476 Vol.
<1%
Arooj Shah
$613 Vol.
<1%
Jake Austin
$558 Vol.
<1%
Laura Evans
$411 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If two candidates tie for receiving the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election, this market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the specified election.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).Arooj Shah leads the market at 62.5% for the largest share of first-preference votes in the 30 July 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, reflecting trader assessments of her Labour candidacy and recent profile after stepping down as Oldham council leader following the May local elections that produced no overall control. Other named contenders such as Bev Craig, Geraldine Coggins, Paul Dennett, Kate Green and additional declared or potential entrants sit lower, consistent with fragmented opposition from Reform UK, Greens and independents amid Labour’s historical dominance in the region. The short campaign timeline, voter registration deadlines and supplementary vote mechanics heighten focus on first-preference consolidation among major parties, while the vacancy created by Andy Burnham’s parliamentary move adds uncertainty over turnout and vote splitting.
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If two candidates tie for receiving the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election, this market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the specified election.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If two candidates tie for receiving the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election, this market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the specified election.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 25, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Volume
$6,665Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 25, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If two candidates tie for receiving the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election, this market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the specified election.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).Arooj Shah leads the market at 62.5% for the largest share of first-preference votes in the 30 July 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, reflecting trader assessments of her Labour candidacy and recent profile after stepping down as Oldham council leader following the May local elections that produced no overall control. Other named contenders such as Bev Craig, Geraldine Coggins, Paul Dennett, Kate Green and additional declared or potential entrants sit lower, consistent with fragmented opposition from Reform UK, Greens and independents amid Labour’s historical dominance in the region. The short campaign timeline, voter registration deadlines and supplementary vote mechanics heighten focus on first-preference consolidation among major parties, while the vacancy created by Andy Burnham’s parliamentary move adds uncertainty over turnout and vote splitting.
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If two candidates tie for receiving the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election, this market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the specified election.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If two candidates tie for receiving the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election, this market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the specified election.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Volume
$6,665Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 25, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Arooj Shah leads the market at 62.5% for the largest share of first-preference votes in the 30 July 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, reflecting trader assessments of her Labour candidacy and recent profile after stepping down as Oldham council leader following the May local elections that produced no overall control. Other named contenders such as Bev Craig, Geraldine Coggins, Paul Dennett, Kate Green and additional declared or potential entrants sit lower, consistent with fragmented opposition from Reform UK, Greens and independents amid Labour’s historical dominance in the region. The short campaign timeline, voter registration deadlines and supplementary vote mechanics heighten focus on first-preference consolidation among major parties, while the vacancy created by Andy Burnham’s parliamentary move adds uncertainty over turnout and vote splitting.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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