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Politik·Jangka Menengah

Closest Senate Race?

icon for Closest Senate Race?
Politik·Jangka Menengah

Closest Senate Race?

Texas 25%

Iowa 22.4%

Ohio (Special) 15.3%

Maine 15%

Polymarket

$28,230 Vol.

Texas 25%

Iowa 22.4%

Ohio (Special) 15.3%

Maine 15%

Polymarket

$28,230 Vol.

Texas

$1,078 Vol.

25%

Iowa

$2,677 Vol.

22%

Ohio (Special)

$5,040 Vol.

15%

Maine

$1,285 Vol.

15%

Alaska

$5,272 Vol.

12%

Nebraska

$275 Vol.

5%

Michigan

$2,490 Vol.

5%

New Mexico

$160 Vol.

3%

Florida (Special)

$253 Vol.

3%

Virginia

$5,073 Vol.

2%

North Carolina

$621 Vol.

2%

New Hampshire

$485 Vol.

1%

Georgia

$752 Vol.

1%

Colorado

$662 Vol.

1%

Minnesota

$1,489 Vol.

1%

Montana

$616 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Polymarket consensus highlights Texas, Iowa, and the Ohio special as the leading candidates for the tightest 2026 Senate contest, driven by recent polling averages showing margins under 5 points in each. In Texas, primary shifts produced a matchup between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico that remains within 1-3 points. Iowa features an open seat with Republican Ashley Hinson holding slim leads over Democrat Josh Turek in the latest surveys. The Ohio special pits Republican Jon Husted against Democrat Sherrod Brown, with results fluctuating by a few points across Fox and NYT/Siena polls. These races stay closely matched due to strong challenger recruitment, comparable fundraising, and voter priorities on economic conditions that limit separation. Further primary outcomes, late-cycle endorsements, or national polling swings could widen gaps ahead of November.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,230
Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Polymarket consensus highlights Texas, Iowa, and the Ohio special as the leading candidates for the tightest 2026 Senate contest, driven by recent polling averages showing margins under 5 points in each. In Texas, primary shifts produced a matchup between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico that remains within 1-3 points. Iowa features an open seat with Republican Ashley Hinson holding slim leads over Democrat Josh Turek in the latest surveys. The Ohio special pits Republican Jon Husted against Democrat Sherrod Brown, with results fluctuating by a few points across Fox and NYT/Siena polls. These races stay closely matched due to strong challenger recruitment, comparable fundraising, and voter priorities on economic conditions that limit separation. Further primary outcomes, late-cycle endorsements, or national polling swings could widen gaps ahead of November.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,230
Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Terkait

icon for Will Ohio have the closest Governor's race in 2026?

Will Ohio have the closest Governor's race in 2026?

18%
icon for Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

72%
icon for Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?

Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?

27%

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Closest Senate Race?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 16 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Texas" di 25%, diikuti oleh "Iowa" di 22%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 25¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 25% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Closest Senate Race?" telah menghasilkan $28.2K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jun 26, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Closest Senate Race?," jelajahi 16 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Closest Senate Race?" adalah "Texas" di 25%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 25% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Iowa" di 22%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Closest Senate Race?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.