Washington’s 4th congressional district carries an R+10 Partisan Voter Index and has delivered consistent Republican margins in recent cycles, establishing a structural advantage for the party. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement created an open seat, but the August 4, 2026 top-two primary consolidated Republican support behind Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, who advanced alongside Democrat John Duresky. McKinney’s plurality in a crowded GOP field and the district’s voter registration patterns have produced the current trader consensus reflected in Polymarket pricing. A Democratic victory would require an unusually large national midterm swing or late-cycle developments that overcome the seat’s baseline partisan tilt.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWA-04 House Election Winner
WA-04 House Election Winner
$50,609 Vol.
$50,609 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
8%
$50,609 Vol.
$50,609 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$27,999 Vol.
91%
Democratic Party
$22,611 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington’s 4th congressional district carries an R+10 Partisan Voter Index and has delivered consistent Republican margins in recent cycles, establishing a structural advantage for the party. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement created an open seat, but the August 4, 2026 top-two primary consolidated Republican support behind Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, who advanced alongside Democrat John Duresky. McKinney’s plurality in a crowded GOP field and the district’s voter registration patterns have produced the current trader consensus reflected in Polymarket pricing. A Democratic victory would require an unusually large national midterm swing or late-cycle developments that overcome the seat’s baseline partisan tilt.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$50,609Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington’s 4th congressional district carries an R+10 Partisan Voter Index and has delivered consistent Republican margins in recent cycles, establishing a structural advantage for the party. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement created an open seat, but the August 4, 2026 top-two primary consolidated Republican support behind Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, who advanced alongside Democrat John Duresky. McKinney’s plurality in a crowded GOP field and the district’s voter registration patterns have produced the current trader consensus reflected in Polymarket pricing. A Democratic victory would require an unusually large national midterm swing or late-cycle developments that overcome the seat’s baseline partisan tilt.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$50,609Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Washington’s 4th congressional district carries an R+10 Partisan Voter Index and has delivered consistent Republican margins in recent cycles, establishing a structural advantage for the party. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement created an open seat, but the August 4, 2026 top-two primary consolidated Republican support behind Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, who advanced alongside Democrat John Duresky. McKinney’s plurality in a crowded GOP field and the district’s voter registration patterns have produced the current trader consensus reflected in Polymarket pricing. A Democratic victory would require an unusually large national midterm swing or late-cycle developments that overcome the seat’s baseline partisan tilt.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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