Recent defections and by-election gains, including Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 switch and One Nation’s victories in the Farrer and Secret Harbour contests earlier in 2026, have underscored the party’s appeal to disaffected conservatives amid rising primary-vote support in national polling. This momentum, coupled with reports of interest from sitting state legislators such as Western Australia’s Ben Dawkins, sustains trader expectations of further parliamentary realignments before year-end. Countervailing pressures include internal party frictions over policy votes, high-profile controversies surrounding migration proposals and historical statements, and tightening discipline within the major parties that could discourage additional crossings. The near-even probability reflects these offsetting dynamics, with any high-profile announcement or major scandal before the close of 2026 likely to shift the balance.