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icon for Apakah Trump akan mengundurkan diri pada 31 Desember 2026?
Politik·Trump

Apakah Trump akan mengundurkan diri pada 31 Desember 2026?

icon for Apakah Trump akan mengundurkan diri pada 31 Desember 2026?
Politik·Trump

Apakah Trump akan mengundurkan diri pada 31 Desember 2026?

Ya

7% peluang
Polymarket

$431,570 Vol.

Ya

7% peluang
Polymarket

$431,570 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against President Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of verified health issues, resignation signals, or advancing impeachment proceedings in recent months. Symbolic impeachment resolutions, such as Rep. John Larson's April filing invoking the 25th Amendment, have gained no traction amid Republican House control. Speculative predictions like James Carville's March comments on a post-midterm exit for a potential VP pardon remain unheeded without supporting evidence. Trump's ongoing policy execution and appointee turnover—e.g., FDA Commissioner Marty Makary's May 12 resignation—underscore administrative continuity rather than personal withdrawal. Odds could shift via unforeseen scandals, legal escalations, or health events ahead of November midterms or year-end deadlines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$431,570
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against President Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of verified health issues, resignation signals, or advancing impeachment proceedings in recent months. Symbolic impeachment resolutions, such as Rep. John Larson's April filing invoking the 25th Amendment, have gained no traction amid Republican House control. Speculative predictions like James Carville's March comments on a post-midterm exit for a potential VP pardon remain unheeded without supporting evidence. Trump's ongoing policy execution and appointee turnover—e.g., FDA Commissioner Marty Makary's May 12 resignation—underscore administrative continuity rather than personal withdrawal. Odds could shift via unforeseen scandals, legal escalations, or health events ahead of November midterms or year-end deadlines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$431,570
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Apakah Trump akan mengundurkan diri pada 31 Desember 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 2 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Apakah Trump akan mengundurkan diri pada atau sebelum 31 Desember 2026?" di 7%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 7¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 7% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Apakah Trump akan mengundurkan diri pada 31 Desember 2026?" telah menghasilkan $431.6K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jul 25, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Apakah Trump akan mengundurkan diri pada 31 Desember 2026?," jelajahi 2 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Ini adalah pasar yang sangat terbuka. Pemimpin saat ini untuk "Apakah Trump akan mengundurkan diri pada 31 Desember 2026?" adalah "Apakah Trump akan mengundurkan diri pada atau sebelum 31 Desember 2026?" di hanya 7%. Tanpa hasil yang menguasai mayoritas kuat, trader melihat ini sebagai sangat tidak pasti, yang bisa menghadirkan peluang trading unik. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time, jadi tandai halaman ini untuk menyaksikan bagaimana probabilitas berkembang.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Apakah Trump akan mengundurkan diri pada 31 Desember 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.