**Trader consensus assigns 71% probability to the USD/IRR rate reaching 2.8 million or higher by end-October, reflecting sustained downward pressure on the rial.** Recent street rates have climbed above 2.58 million IRR per USD amid ongoing US sanctions, a naval blockade restricting oil exports, and elevated domestic inflation that has outpaced currency adjustments. These factors have driven repeated record lows in September, with limited foreign-currency inflows and heightened demand for hard currency as a hedge. Absent verifiable diplomatic breakthroughs or sanctions relief within the short resolution window, the market pricing incorporates continued rial depreciation consistent with prevailing export constraints and macroeconomic imbalances.