**Trader consensus heavily favors the USD/IRR free-market rate exceeding 2.2 million rials by end-September 2026 (85.0% implied probability), with lower bands receiving minimal support.** This positioning reflects the rial’s sharp recent depreciation amid sustained external pressures. Since March 2026, the free-market rate has fallen roughly 60%, accelerating after the U.S. reinstated its naval blockade on Iranian ports in July. Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have collapsed from around 2 million barrels per day earlier in the year to near zero in recent months, eliminating a primary source of foreign-currency earnings and widening the gap between official rates (near 1.37–1.6 million) and street rates. Additional factors include tightened U.S. sanctions targeting regional banking channels, high inflation (reported near 66–84%), and ongoing regional conflict now in its seventh month. Iran’s central bank has signaled readiness to inject up to $2 billion to stabilize markets, but traders appear to view these measures as insufficient to reverse the trend before month-end. Historical patterns of rapid rial weakening during periods of export disruption and sanctions enforcement further support the current pricing, with few near-term catalysts evident that could restore significant hard-currency inflows.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiUSD x Iranian rials End of September?
USD x Iranian rials End of September?
2.2M+ 86%
2.1-2.2M 8.3%
<1.7M 2.0%
2.0-2.1M 1.9%
$19,440 Vol.
$19,440 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<1.7M
2%
1.7-1.8M
1%
1.8-1.9M
1%
1.9-2.0M
1%
2.0-2.1M
2%
2.1-2.2M
8%
2.2M+
86%
2.2M+ 86%
2.1-2.2M 8.3%
<1.7M 2.0%
2.0-2.1M 1.9%
$19,440 Vol.
$19,440 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<1.7M
$977 Vol.
2%
1.7-1.8M
$907 Vol.
1%
1.8-1.9M
$908 Vol.
1%
1.9-2.0M
$2,298 Vol.
1%
2.0-2.1M
$3,336 Vol.
2%
2.1-2.2M
$2,039 Vol.
8%
2.2M+
$8,974 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for September 30, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.**Trader consensus heavily favors the USD/IRR free-market rate exceeding 2.2 million rials by end-September 2026 (85.0% implied probability), with lower bands receiving minimal support.**
This positioning reflects the rial’s sharp recent depreciation amid sustained external pressures. Since March 2026, the free-market rate has fallen roughly 60%, accelerating after the U.S. reinstated its naval blockade on Iranian ports in July. Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have collapsed from around 2 million barrels per day earlier in the year to near zero in recent months, eliminating a primary source of foreign-currency earnings and widening the gap between official rates (near 1.37–1.6 million) and street rates.
Additional factors include tightened U.S. sanctions targeting regional banking channels, high inflation (reported near 66–84%), and ongoing regional conflict now in its seventh month. Iran’s central bank has signaled readiness to inject up to $2 billion to stabilize markets, but traders appear to view these measures as insufficient to reverse the trend before month-end. Historical patterns of rapid rial weakening during periods of export disruption and sanctions enforcement further support the current pricing, with few near-term catalysts evident that could restore significant hard-currency inflows.
This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for September 30, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 26, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
Volume
$19,440Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 26, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for September 30, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.**Trader consensus heavily favors the USD/IRR free-market rate exceeding 2.2 million rials by end-September 2026 (85.0% implied probability), with lower bands receiving minimal support.**
This positioning reflects the rial’s sharp recent depreciation amid sustained external pressures. Since March 2026, the free-market rate has fallen roughly 60%, accelerating after the U.S. reinstated its naval blockade on Iranian ports in July. Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have collapsed from around 2 million barrels per day earlier in the year to near zero in recent months, eliminating a primary source of foreign-currency earnings and widening the gap between official rates (near 1.37–1.6 million) and street rates.
Additional factors include tightened U.S. sanctions targeting regional banking channels, high inflation (reported near 66–84%), and ongoing regional conflict now in its seventh month. Iran’s central bank has signaled readiness to inject up to $2 billion to stabilize markets, but traders appear to view these measures as insufficient to reverse the trend before month-end. Historical patterns of rapid rial weakening during periods of export disruption and sanctions enforcement further support the current pricing, with few near-term catalysts evident that could restore significant hard-currency inflows.
This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for September 30, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$19,440Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 26, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors the USD/IRR free-market rate exceeding 2.2 million rials by end-September 2026 (85.0% implied probability), with lower bands receiving minimal support.** This positioning reflects the rial’s sharp recent depreciation amid sustained external pressures. Since March 2026, the free-market rate has fallen roughly 60%, accelerating after the U.S. reinstated its naval blockade on Iranian ports in July. Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have collapsed from around 2 million barrels per day earlier in the year to near zero in recent months, eliminating a primary source of foreign-currency earnings and widening the gap between official rates (near 1.37–1.6 million) and street rates. Additional factors include tightened U.S. sanctions targeting regional banking channels, high inflation (reported near 66–84%), and ongoing regional conflict now in its seventh month. Iran’s central bank has signaled readiness to inject up to $2 billion to stabilize markets, but traders appear to view these measures as insufficient to reverse the trend before month-end. Historical patterns of rapid rial weakening during periods of export disruption and sanctions enforcement further support the current pricing, with few near-term catalysts evident that could restore significant hard-currency inflows.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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