Persistent US-Iran conflict and active naval blockade continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the 56% market-implied probability for a 0-5 daily average by end-October. Recent data show AIS-visible traffic averaging just 3-5 vessels per day against a pre-crisis baseline near 75, with most movements relying on dark transits or US-facilitated southern corridors amid escalating strikes, GPS jamming, and war-risk premiums at 15 times peacetime levels. Trader consensus prices in sustained low volumes given rejected diplomatic overtures and ongoing incidents, though any verified ceasefire easing could lift throughput toward the 5-10 bin at 22.5%. Key near-term catalysts include FOMC-adjacent energy price signals and potential blockade adjustments.