The Iranian regime’s survival through the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and damaged military and nuclear sites, followed by the rapid installation of Mojtaba Khamenei, has reinforced trader expectations that systemic collapse remains unlikely by mid-2027. Despite renewed protests in provinces such as Khuzestan, ongoing executions of demonstrators, currency pressures, and tightened U.S. sanctions plus Hormuz-related measures under the Trump administration, security forces have maintained control and internal factions have shown wartime cohesion. External diplomatic efforts and limited strikes have not produced the coordinated internal uprising or elite fracture needed for regime change. Traders price the 85.5% probability of “No” on these structural barriers and historical patterns of resilience, while noting that sustained economic deterioration or major new escalations could still shift dynamics before the resolution date.