Ongoing Iranian restrictions and repeated attacks on tankers have kept Strait of Hormuz transits severely constrained, with AIS-visible commercial traffic averaging just 4-6 vessels per day in early October 2026—roughly 6% of the pre-crisis norm of 80-plus daily crossings. Recent strikes, including a October 1 projectile hit on a tanker near Omani waters, alongside Tehran’s permit requirements and warnings against unauthorized routes, sustain elevated war-risk insurance premiums and rerouting via ship-to-ship transfers outside the Gulf. These dynamics support low market-implied odds for high daily volumes by October 31, as traders weigh persistent maritime risks against partial oil-flow recovery through alternative channels and U.S.-facilitated corridors.