**Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including control of Perim Island and Mokha in September 2026, have sustained elevated security risks at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, keeping weekly vessel transits suppressed near the 170-189 range favored by Polymarket traders at 67.5% implied probability.** Ongoing Houthi threats, focused primarily on Saudi-linked shipping, have prompted many operators—especially VLCCs and other tankers—to avoid or reroute around the chokepoint, with data showing tanker crossings down sharply (e.g., zero VLCC transits after early September in some reports) while dry-bulk and container traffic has held steadier but still below pre-disruption norms. Recent tracking indicates daily averages around 25 vessels in mid-to-late September, translating to weekly totals consistent with the leading 170-189 bin, roughly half of historical peaks. Broader market dynamics, including the separate Strait of Hormuz disruptions that initially boosted some Red Sea flows before Houthi actions reversed gains, have reinforced caution. Traders appear to price in continued selective avoidance and limited recovery absent a rapid de-escalation, with the 230+ outcome (25.8%) requiring a swift return toward 33+ daily transits that recent ground advances and incidents make unlikely in the immediate term. The week of October 5 sits close enough to resolution that any fresh attacks or naval responses could shift sentiment, though current positioning reflects sustained low-to-moderate traffic levels.