The 95.5% trader consensus on "No" for U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 reflects the absence of any congressional legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit induction into the armed forces. The Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, enacted in December 2025, updated only registration procedures through automatic enrollment effective December 2026, without authorizing conscription. This aligns with the all-volunteer force framework in place since 1973, where activation requires separate congressional action and presidential approval amid a national emergency exceeding recruitment capacity. With limited time remaining in the calendar year and no active bills advancing, market pricing tracks the procedural and political barriers to rapid passage. Late-session developments, such as major escalations in ongoing conflicts necessitating large-scale troop mobilization, could still prompt emergency consideration of draft authority before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui5% peluang
$518,908 Vol.
$518,908 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% peluang
$518,908 Vol.
$518,908 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 95.5% trader consensus on "No" for U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 reflects the absence of any congressional legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit induction into the armed forces. The Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, enacted in December 2025, updated only registration procedures through automatic enrollment effective December 2026, without authorizing conscription. This aligns with the all-volunteer force framework in place since 1973, where activation requires separate congressional action and presidential approval amid a national emergency exceeding recruitment capacity. With limited time remaining in the calendar year and no active bills advancing, market pricing tracks the procedural and political barriers to rapid passage. Late-session developments, such as major escalations in ongoing conflicts necessitating large-scale troop mobilization, could still prompt emergency consideration of draft authority before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Volume
$518,908Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 95.5% trader consensus on "No" for U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 reflects the absence of any congressional legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit induction into the armed forces. The Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, enacted in December 2025, updated only registration procedures through automatic enrollment effective December 2026, without authorizing conscription. This aligns with the all-volunteer force framework in place since 1973, where activation requires separate congressional action and presidential approval amid a national emergency exceeding recruitment capacity. With limited time remaining in the calendar year and no active bills advancing, market pricing tracks the procedural and political barriers to rapid passage. Late-session developments, such as major escalations in ongoing conflicts necessitating large-scale troop mobilization, could still prompt emergency consideration of draft authority before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$518,908Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 95.5% trader consensus on "No" for U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 reflects the absence of any congressional legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit induction into the armed forces. The Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, enacted in December 2025, updated only registration procedures through automatic enrollment effective December 2026, without authorizing conscription. This aligns with the all-volunteer force framework in place since 1973, where activation requires separate congressional action and presidential approval amid a national emergency exceeding recruitment capacity. With limited time remaining in the calendar year and no active bills advancing, market pricing tracks the procedural and political barriers to rapid passage. Late-session developments, such as major escalations in ongoing conflicts necessitating large-scale troop mobilization, could still prompt emergency consideration of draft authority before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan