Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91% for US military draft authorization in 2026, driven by the absence of any congressional bills, votes, or official proposals to reinstate conscription despite ongoing military recruitment challenges. Early April announcements confirmed a provision in the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act—signed by President Trump in December 2025—will automate Selective Service registration for men aged 18-26 starting December, streamlining the existing standby system without activating a draft, which requires a national emergency declaration, congressional authorization, and presidential proclamation. Geopolitical tensions, including the US-Israel war against Iran, have not prompted legislative action, reinforcing reliance on the all-volunteer force amid historical resistance to drafts since 1973. Late-breaking escalation or NDAA amendments could alter this outlook.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$251,081 Vol.
$251,081 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$251,081 Vol.
$251,081 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91% for US military draft authorization in 2026, driven by the absence of any congressional bills, votes, or official proposals to reinstate conscription despite ongoing military recruitment challenges. Early April announcements confirmed a provision in the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act—signed by President Trump in December 2025—will automate Selective Service registration for men aged 18-26 starting December, streamlining the existing standby system without activating a draft, which requires a national emergency declaration, congressional authorization, and presidential proclamation. Geopolitical tensions, including the US-Israel war against Iran, have not prompted legislative action, reinforcing reliance on the all-volunteer force amid historical resistance to drafts since 1973. Late-breaking escalation or NDAA amendments could alter this outlook.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Volume
$251,081Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91% for US military draft authorization in 2026, driven by the absence of any congressional bills, votes, or official proposals to reinstate conscription despite ongoing military recruitment challenges. Early April announcements confirmed a provision in the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act—signed by President Trump in December 2025—will automate Selective Service registration for men aged 18-26 starting December, streamlining the existing standby system without activating a draft, which requires a national emergency declaration, congressional authorization, and presidential proclamation. Geopolitical tensions, including the US-Israel war against Iran, have not prompted legislative action, reinforcing reliance on the all-volunteer force amid historical resistance to drafts since 1973. Late-breaking escalation or NDAA amendments could alter this outlook.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$251,081Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91% for US military draft authorization in 2026, driven by the absence of any congressional bills, votes, or official proposals to reinstate conscription despite ongoing military recruitment challenges. Early April announcements confirmed a provision in the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act—signed by President Trump in December 2025—will automate Selective Service registration for men aged 18-26 starting December, streamlining the existing standby system without activating a draft, which requires a national emergency declaration, congressional authorization, and presidential proclamation. Geopolitical tensions, including the US-Israel war against Iran, have not prompted legislative action, reinforcing reliance on the all-volunteer force amid historical resistance to drafts since 1973. Late-breaking escalation or NDAA amendments could alter this outlook.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan