**Trader consensus clusters around 2.6–3.0 million IRR per USD at end-November because the rial’s free-market rate has stabilized near 2.7 million amid entrenched structural pressures.** A U.S. naval blockade and sanctions have reduced Iranian crude exports to near zero since late summer, eliminating the primary source of foreign-currency inflows and leaving Tehran preparing a zero-oil-revenue budget with final payments expected by mid-December. High inflation above 70 percent and depleted foreign reserves have sustained depreciation, while central-bank interventions of roughly $2 billion have only moderated short-term volatility without reversing the trend. With roughly two weeks remaining, the narrow spread across bins reflects uncertainty over any last-minute diplomatic signals on Hormuz access or sanctions relief versus continued FX scarcity.