Traders assign a 97.9 percent implied probability against President Trump renaming the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, driven by the complete lack of any official statements, executive actions, or diplomatic signals from the administration on this matter. The strait remains a key international shipping lane governed by longstanding maritime conventions and multilateral understandings, none of which have seen movement toward unilateral U.S. geographic redesignation. No recent foreign policy developments or public remarks have indicated interest in altering established nomenclature. While an unexpected announcement or symbolic gesture in the final days before the deadline could still emerge, the sustained trader consensus reflects the structural barriers and absence of preparatory steps that would be needed for such a change to occur.