Iranian airspace has faced repeated closures and restrictions since U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeted Iran starting February 28, 2026, sparking a regional war, with partial reopening on April 21 amid a fragile ceasefire. In the past 10 days, Iranian missile and drone attacks prompted UAE airspace restrictions on May 5, while airlines canceled flights following reported U.S.-Israel strikes around May 7, underscoring persistent escalation risks despite diplomatic signals like Saudi discussions of a post-war non-aggression pact with Middle East states. Trader consensus prices a 54% chance of renewed full closure by June 30 and around 40% by May 31, reflecting uncertainty over Strait of Hormuz blockades, proxy actions, and upcoming summits that could trigger shutdowns for military or safety reasons.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. ยท DiperbaruiIran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions
May 15 jumps to 14%5%
Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehranโs international airport after war hiatus
May 15 plunges to 4%28%
On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.
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