Traders assign a 99% probability against the Iranian regime falling by May 31 because no major domestic unrest, leadership vacuum, or coordinated opposition challenge has emerged to threaten central authority in the immediate term. Security institutions continue to enforce stability, while recent diplomatic contacts and economic adjustments have contained internal pressures without triggering escalation. External developments, including ongoing regional tensions, have not produced the sustained military or sanctions shocks required for rapid collapse within the two-week window. Although abrupt shifts such as large-scale protests, high-level defections, or unforeseen diplomatic breakthroughs remain theoretically possible, these events have historically required months rather than days to materialize and alter established institutional control.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAkankah rezim Iran jatuh pada 31 Mei?
Akankah rezim Iran jatuh pada 31 Mei?
Ya
$20,425,622 Vol.
$20,425,622 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Ya
$20,425,622 Vol.
$20,425,622 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 99% probability against the Iranian regime falling by May 31 because no major domestic unrest, leadership vacuum, or coordinated opposition challenge has emerged to threaten central authority in the immediate term. Security institutions continue to enforce stability, while recent diplomatic contacts and economic adjustments have contained internal pressures without triggering escalation. External developments, including ongoing regional tensions, have not produced the sustained military or sanctions shocks required for rapid collapse within the two-week window. Although abrupt shifts such as large-scale protests, high-level defections, or unforeseen diplomatic breakthroughs remain theoretically possible, these events have historically required months rather than days to materialize and alter established institutional control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Volume
$20,425,622Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 99% probability against the Iranian regime falling by May 31 because no major domestic unrest, leadership vacuum, or coordinated opposition challenge has emerged to threaten central authority in the immediate term. Security institutions continue to enforce stability, while recent diplomatic contacts and economic adjustments have contained internal pressures without triggering escalation. External developments, including ongoing regional tensions, have not produced the sustained military or sanctions shocks required for rapid collapse within the two-week window. Although abrupt shifts such as large-scale protests, high-level defections, or unforeseen diplomatic breakthroughs remain theoretically possible, these events have historically required months rather than days to materialize and alter established institutional control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$20,425,622Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99% probability against the Iranian regime falling by May 31 because no major domestic unrest, leadership vacuum, or coordinated opposition challenge has emerged to threaten central authority in the immediate term. Security institutions continue to enforce stability, while recent diplomatic contacts and economic adjustments have contained internal pressures without triggering escalation. External developments, including ongoing regional tensions, have not produced the sustained military or sanctions shocks required for rapid collapse within the two-week window. Although abrupt shifts such as large-scale protests, high-level defections, or unforeseen diplomatic breakthroughs remain theoretically possible, these events have historically required months rather than days to materialize and alter established institutional control.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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