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icon for Mojtaba Khamenei meninggalkan Iran dengan...?
Politik·Khamenei

Mojtaba Khamenei meninggalkan Iran dengan...?

icon for Mojtaba Khamenei meninggalkan Iran dengan...?
Politik·Khamenei

Mojtaba Khamenei meninggalkan Iran dengan...?

$1,122,957 Vol.

May 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,122,957 Vol.

Polymarket

May 31

$101,700 Vol.

1%

June 30

$49,647 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since his March 2026 appointment following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in initial U.S.-Israeli strikes, has made no verified public appearance amid the ongoing Iran war, fueling trader skepticism on departure markets despite low "Yes" probabilities around 1-6% for May 31 and June 30 bins. Official statements as of early May affirm his health and oversight of Hormuz Strait negotiations via audio, countering rumors of severe injuries or even death from the same attacks, with AI-generated images cited on state media. Recent expert analysis, including from Saeid Golkar, highlights regime contingency plans akin to Assad's Russia flight if collapse nears, but faltering Islamabad talks and Netanyahu's assessment of limited authority underscore uncertainty without confirmed relocation. Upcoming diplomatic developments or a public sighting could shift consensus.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,122,957
Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since his March 2026 appointment following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in initial U.S.-Israeli strikes, has made no verified public appearance amid the ongoing Iran war, fueling trader skepticism on departure markets despite low "Yes" probabilities around 1-6% for May 31 and June 30 bins. Official statements as of early May affirm his health and oversight of Hormuz Strait negotiations via audio, countering rumors of severe injuries or even death from the same attacks, with AI-generated images cited on state media. Recent expert analysis, including from Saeid Golkar, highlights regime contingency plans akin to Assad's Russia flight if collapse nears, but faltering Islamabad talks and Netanyahu's assessment of limited authority underscore uncertainty without confirmed relocation. Upcoming diplomatic developments or a public sighting could shift consensus.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,122,957
Tanggal Berakhir
Apr 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Mojtaba Khamenei meninggalkan Iran dengan...?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 4 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "June 30" di 3%, diikuti oleh "May 31" di 1%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 3¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 3% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Mojtaba Khamenei meninggalkan Iran dengan...?" telah menghasilkan $1.1 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Mar 10, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Mojtaba Khamenei meninggalkan Iran dengan...?," jelajahi 4 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Ini adalah pasar yang sangat terbuka. Pemimpin saat ini untuk "Mojtaba Khamenei meninggalkan Iran dengan...?" adalah "June 30" di hanya 3%, dengan "May 31" mengejar ketat di 1%. Tanpa hasil yang menguasai mayoritas kuat, trader melihat ini sebagai sangat tidak pasti, yang bisa menghadirkan peluang trading unik. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time, jadi tandai halaman ini untuk menyaksikan bagaimana probabilitas berkembang.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Mojtaba Khamenei meninggalkan Iran dengan...?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.