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Teknologi·SpaceX

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

icon for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
Teknologi·SpaceX

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

Oct 31

Oct 31

BARU
Aug 31, 2026
Polymarket

$332 Vol.

Polymarket

August 31

$81 Vol.

60%

September 30

$251 Vol.

82%

October 31

$0 Vol.

91%

Super Heavy booster explodes?

$0 Vol.

85%

Successful splash down?

$0 Vol.

51%

Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?

$0 Vol.

5%

Chopsticks catch Starship?

$0 Vol.

53%

If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the booster for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Starship upper stage for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If SpaceX attempts to catch the Starship upper stage using the Orbital Launch Tower’s chopsticks instead of attempting an ocean splashdown, this market will resolve to “No.” This market pertains to the 14th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 14th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 14th launch, and this market will stay open until the 14th launch has occurred. If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the booster for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the 14th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 14th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 14th launch, and this market will stay open until the 14th launch has occurred. If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Starship upper stage for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower’s chopsticks, this market will resolve to “No.” A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the 14th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 14th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 14th launch, and this market will stay open until the 14th launch has occurred. If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.SpaceX achieved a strong Flight 13 success on July 24, 2026, with its second V3 Starship vehicle completing satellite deployment, engine relights, and an intact Indian Ocean splashdown that validated heat shield performance. This momentum supports Flight 14’s planned shift to the first attempted orbital insertion and potential tower catch of the upper stage using the launch tower “chopsticks,” using Booster 21 and Ship 41. Vehicle cryogenic proof testing is underway at Starbase, with regulators reviewing expanded profiles and monthly cadence targets. Key swing factors include FAA licensing timelines, Raptor 3 reliability upgrades, and any last-minute hardware or range issues that could delay the Q3 window.

If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Volume
$332
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 10:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the booster for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Starship upper stage for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If SpaceX attempts to catch the Starship upper stage using the Orbital Launch Tower’s chopsticks instead of attempting an ocean splashdown, this market will resolve to “No.” This market pertains to the 14th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 14th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 14th launch, and this market will stay open until the 14th launch has occurred. If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the booster for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the 14th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 14th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 14th launch, and this market will stay open until the 14th launch has occurred. If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Starship upper stage for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower’s chopsticks, this market will resolve to “No.” A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the 14th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 14th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 14th launch, and this market will stay open until the 14th launch has occurred. If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.SpaceX achieved a strong Flight 13 success on July 24, 2026, with its second V3 Starship vehicle completing satellite deployment, engine relights, and an intact Indian Ocean splashdown that validated heat shield performance. This momentum supports Flight 14’s planned shift to the first attempted orbital insertion and potential tower catch of the upper stage using the launch tower “chopsticks,” using Booster 21 and Ship 41. Vehicle cryogenic proof testing is underway at Starbase, with regulators reviewing expanded profiles and monthly cadence targets. Key swing factors include FAA licensing timelines, Raptor 3 reliability upgrades, and any last-minute hardware or range issues that could delay the Q3 window.

If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Volume
$332
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 10:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 7 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "October 31" di 91%, diikuti oleh "Super Heavy booster explodes?" di 85%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 91¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 91% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Jul 31, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14," jelajahi 7 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14" adalah "October 31" di 91%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 91% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Super Heavy booster explodes?" di 85%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.