Recent releases from Anthropic, including Claude Opus 5 and Claude Fable 5 in mid-2026, along with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol, have driven top LMSYS Arena Elo ratings to the 1509–1511 range as of August. These frontier large language models lead through iterative scaling, enhanced reasoning, and agentic capabilities demonstrated in human preference battles. Competitive pressure remains intense among Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, and Google, with the top four labs clustered within roughly 25 Elo points and performance gaps narrowing versus open-source contenders like DeepSeek. Trader sentiment reflects expectations of additional model iterations or capability jumps before year-end, tempered by typical development delays and the inherent uncertainty of whether incremental gains will push any single model past the market's specific Overall Arena Score threshold.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$142,125 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
↑ 1520
61%
↑ 1530
29%
↑ 1540
17%
↑ 1550
12%
↑ 1600
10%
↑ 1650
8%
↑ 1700
3%
$142,125 Vol.
↑ 1520
$7,214 Vol.
61%
↑ 1530
$7,374 Vol.
29%
↑ 1540
$1,337 Vol.
17%
↑ 1550
$48,924 Vol.
12%
↑ 1600
$23,009 Vol.
10%
↑ 1650
$8,600 Vol.
8%
↑ 1700
$9,009 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases from Anthropic, including Claude Opus 5 and Claude Fable 5 in mid-2026, along with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol, have driven top LMSYS Arena Elo ratings to the 1509–1511 range as of August. These frontier large language models lead through iterative scaling, enhanced reasoning, and agentic capabilities demonstrated in human preference battles. Competitive pressure remains intense among Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, and Google, with the top four labs clustered within roughly 25 Elo points and performance gaps narrowing versus open-source contenders like DeepSeek. Trader sentiment reflects expectations of additional model iterations or capability jumps before year-end, tempered by typical development delays and the inherent uncertainty of whether incremental gains will push any single model past the market's specific Overall Arena Score threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$142,125Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases from Anthropic, including Claude Opus 5 and Claude Fable 5 in mid-2026, along with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol, have driven top LMSYS Arena Elo ratings to the 1509–1511 range as of August. These frontier large language models lead through iterative scaling, enhanced reasoning, and agentic capabilities demonstrated in human preference battles. Competitive pressure remains intense among Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, and Google, with the top four labs clustered within roughly 25 Elo points and performance gaps narrowing versus open-source contenders like DeepSeek. Trader sentiment reflects expectations of additional model iterations or capability jumps before year-end, tempered by typical development delays and the inherent uncertainty of whether incremental gains will push any single model past the market's specific Overall Arena Score threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$142,125Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent releases from Anthropic, including Claude Opus 5 and Claude Fable 5 in mid-2026, along with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol, have driven top LMSYS Arena Elo ratings to the 1509–1511 range as of August. These frontier large language models lead through iterative scaling, enhanced reasoning, and agentic capabilities demonstrated in human preference battles. Competitive pressure remains intense among Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, and Google, with the top four labs clustered within roughly 25 Elo points and performance gaps narrowing versus open-source contenders like DeepSeek. Trader sentiment reflects expectations of additional model iterations or capability jumps before year-end, tempered by typical development delays and the inherent uncertainty of whether incremental gains will push any single model past the market's specific Overall Arena Score threshold.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan