Anthropic’s early September releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 have established leading or tied positions on key benchmarks including the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and SWE-bench variants, reflecting superior performance in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks relative to OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini tiers. This edge, reinforced by reports that Claude now leads 26% of Anthropic’s internal R&D under human oversight, underpins the 77.5% market-implied probability for Anthropic by late November. OpenAI and Google trail at single-digit odds amid restricted flagship access and slower public cadence, while Chinese labs and others remain further behind on frontier evaluations. Resolution hinges on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard on November 30, where any late model update could still shift the outcome.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 78%
OpenAI 9%
Google 7%
Mistral 4.2%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
78%
OpenAI
9%
7%
Mistral
4%
Baidu
4%
Alibaba
4%
SpaceXAI
4%
Amazon
4%
ByteDance
4%
StepFun
3%
Moonshot
3%
Z.ai
3%
DeepSeek
3%
Tencent
3%
Nvidia
3%
MiniMax
3%
Meituan
2%
Meta
1%
Thinky
1%
Microsoft
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Anthropic 78%
OpenAI 9%
Google 7%
Mistral 4.2%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
$713 Vol.
78%
OpenAI
$328 Vol.
9%
$211 Vol.
7%
Mistral
$106 Vol.
4%
Baidu
$157 Vol.
4%
Alibaba
$61 Vol.
4%
SpaceXAI
$125 Vol.
4%
Amazon
$158 Vol.
4%
ByteDance
$149 Vol.
4%
StepFun
$186 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$123 Vol.
3%
Z.ai
$51 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$51 Vol.
3%
Tencent
$51 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$158 Vol.
3%
MiniMax
$51 Vol.
3%
Meituan
$51 Vol.
2%
Meta
$118 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$156 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$120 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$123 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s early September releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 have established leading or tied positions on key benchmarks including the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and SWE-bench variants, reflecting superior performance in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks relative to OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini tiers. This edge, reinforced by reports that Claude now leads 26% of Anthropic’s internal R&D under human oversight, underpins the 77.5% market-implied probability for Anthropic by late November. OpenAI and Google trail at single-digit odds amid restricted flagship access and slower public cadence, while Chinese labs and others remain further behind on frontier evaluations. Resolution hinges on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard on November 30, where any late model update could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$3,247Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s early September releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 have established leading or tied positions on key benchmarks including the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and SWE-bench variants, reflecting superior performance in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks relative to OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini tiers. This edge, reinforced by reports that Claude now leads 26% of Anthropic’s internal R&D under human oversight, underpins the 77.5% market-implied probability for Anthropic by late November. OpenAI and Google trail at single-digit odds amid restricted flagship access and slower public cadence, while Chinese labs and others remain further behind on frontier evaluations. Resolution hinges on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard on November 30, where any late model update could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$3,247Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s early September releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 have established leading or tied positions on key benchmarks including the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and SWE-bench variants, reflecting superior performance in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks relative to OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini tiers. This edge, reinforced by reports that Claude now leads 26% of Anthropic’s internal R&D under human oversight, underpins the 77.5% market-implied probability for Anthropic by late November. OpenAI and Google trail at single-digit odds amid restricted flagship access and slower public cadence, while Chinese labs and others remain further behind on frontier evaluations. Resolution hinges on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard on November 30, where any late model update could still shift the outcome.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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