Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, drives the 72.5% market-implied odds through top rankings on LiveBench, BenchAlign, and coding-focused evaluations like SWE-bench and Terminal-Bench, outperforming rivals in agentic reasoning and knowledge work. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, launched days later, and prior GPT-5.6 variants sit at 11.5% as close but secondary contenders on several intelligence indices. Google's Gemini 3 series holds 9.5% amid steady but less dominant benchmark results. With resolution just months away, traders weigh these verified capability gaps, recent enterprise tool integrations, and the narrow window for further model updates to shift the large language model leaderboard.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 73%
OpenAI 12%
Google 10%
xAI 3.3%
$1,287,698 Vol.
$1,287,698 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
73%
OpenAI
12%
10%
xAI
3%
Meta
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
Moonshot
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Anthropic 73%
OpenAI 12%
Google 10%
xAI 3.3%
$1,287,698 Vol.
$1,287,698 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
$155,872 Vol.
73%
OpenAI
$122,532 Vol.
12%
$77,778 Vol.
10%
xAI
$106,507 Vol.
3%
Meta
$77,740 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$90,464 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$70,864 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$74,727 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$90,684 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$83,836 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$69,298 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$71,810 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$61,229 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$67,744 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$66,612 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, drives the 72.5% market-implied odds through top rankings on LiveBench, BenchAlign, and coding-focused evaluations like SWE-bench and Terminal-Bench, outperforming rivals in agentic reasoning and knowledge work. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, launched days later, and prior GPT-5.6 variants sit at 11.5% as close but secondary contenders on several intelligence indices. Google's Gemini 3 series holds 9.5% amid steady but less dominant benchmark results. With resolution just months away, traders weigh these verified capability gaps, recent enterprise tool integrations, and the narrow window for further model updates to shift the large language model leaderboard.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Volume
$1,287,698Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, drives the 72.5% market-implied odds through top rankings on LiveBench, BenchAlign, and coding-focused evaluations like SWE-bench and Terminal-Bench, outperforming rivals in agentic reasoning and knowledge work. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, launched days later, and prior GPT-5.6 variants sit at 11.5% as close but secondary contenders on several intelligence indices. Google's Gemini 3 series holds 9.5% amid steady but less dominant benchmark results. With resolution just months away, traders weigh these verified capability gaps, recent enterprise tool integrations, and the narrow window for further model updates to shift the large language model leaderboard.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$1,287,698Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, drives the 72.5% market-implied odds through top rankings on LiveBench, BenchAlign, and coding-focused evaluations like SWE-bench and Terminal-Bench, outperforming rivals in agentic reasoning and knowledge work. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, launched days later, and prior GPT-5.6 variants sit at 11.5% as close but secondary contenders on several intelligence indices. Google's Gemini 3 series holds 9.5% amid steady but less dominant benchmark results. With resolution just months away, traders weigh these verified capability gaps, recent enterprise tool integrations, and the narrow window for further model updates to shift the large language model leaderboard.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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