Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 release in early September 2026 has driven its strong 74.5% market-implied probability by securing top composite scores and category leads across independent benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. Multiple leaderboards currently rank its variants ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini models, reflecting sustained capability gains and internal use of Claude for R&D acceleration. With roughly two months until the November resolution, traders are pricing in continuity of this edge absent major rival launches, though product timelines in frontier AI remain subject to rapid shifts from new model drops or benchmark updates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 75%
Google 9%
Meta 8%
Amazon 4.8%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
75%
9%
Meta
8%
Amazon
5%
Meituan
3%
StepFun
3%
Thinky
3%
Nvidia
3%
OpenAI
2%
Moonshot
2%
Alibaba
2%
Tencent
1%
ByteDance
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
Baidu
1%
Xiaomi
1%
DeepSeek
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Microsoft
1%
Anthropic 75%
Google 9%
Meta 8%
Amazon 4.8%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
$1,221 Vol.
75%
$188 Vol.
9%
Meta
$194 Vol.
8%
Amazon
$191 Vol.
5%
Meituan
$191 Vol.
3%
StepFun
$191 Vol.
3%
Thinky
$193 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$180 Vol.
3%
OpenAI
$182 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$182 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$160 Vol.
2%
Tencent
$186 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$131 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$170 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$187 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$140 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$190 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$191 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$191 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$231 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$260 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 release in early September 2026 has driven its strong 74.5% market-implied probability by securing top composite scores and category leads across independent benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. Multiple leaderboards currently rank its variants ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini models, reflecting sustained capability gains and internal use of Claude for R&D acceleration. With roughly two months until the November resolution, traders are pricing in continuity of this edge absent major rival launches, though product timelines in frontier AI remain subject to rapid shifts from new model drops or benchmark updates.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Volume
$4,949Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 release in early September 2026 has driven its strong 74.5% market-implied probability by securing top composite scores and category leads across independent benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. Multiple leaderboards currently rank its variants ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini models, reflecting sustained capability gains and internal use of Claude for R&D acceleration. With roughly two months until the November resolution, traders are pricing in continuity of this edge absent major rival launches, though product timelines in frontier AI remain subject to rapid shifts from new model drops or benchmark updates.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$4,949Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 release in early September 2026 has driven its strong 74.5% market-implied probability by securing top composite scores and category leads across independent benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. Multiple leaderboards currently rank its variants ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini models, reflecting sustained capability gains and internal use of Claude for R&D acceleration. With roughly two months until the November resolution, traders are pricing in continuity of this edge absent major rival launches, though product timelines in frontier AI remain subject to rapid shifts from new model drops or benchmark updates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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