**Sam Altman has not signed the July 2026 “Pacing the Frontier” employee statement and shows no signs of doing so before the September 30 deadline, supporting the 95% market-implied probability of “No.”** The statement, posted at pacingthefrontier.com, asks the U.S. government to help develop technical and governance tools for coordinated international pacing of frontier AI development if automated research accelerates beyond safe oversight. It quickly gathered over 1,300 verified signatories from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and Meta employees, including Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. Altman was explicitly absent from the list despite OpenAI’s corporate endorsement of the underlying ideas. Recent developments reinforce trader consensus. In mid-September 2026, Altman publicly agreed with Amodei’s “We Must Pace the Frontier” essay, endorsed independent “embedded evaluators” with employee-like access, and stressed that pacing means deliberate slowing rather than stopping progress. However, he has framed his position around OpenAI’s internal safety layers, international coordination needs, and avoiding regulatory capture or collusion—without referencing or joining the original employee statement. No credible reporting indicates he has verified eligibility or added his name in the intervening weeks. With only two weeks remaining, the absence of any movement since July, Altman’s distinct public positioning, and the statement’s employee-focused verification process make a last-minute signature highly improbable. A surprise announcement or new coordinated version could theoretically shift odds, but current verified developments point to sustained trader conviction behind “No.”