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icon for AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

icon for AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

68% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
68% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".**Recent breakthroughs in AI mathematical reasoning have driven the 82% market-implied probability that an AI achieves IMO gold-medal performance in 2026.** In July 2025, Google DeepMind’s advanced Gemini with Deep Think and an experimental OpenAI model both reached the gold threshold of 35/42 points on the official IMO 2025 problems by solving five of six questions with rigorous natural-language proofs, matching or exceeding typical gold-medalist scores under contest-like conditions. This milestone followed DeepMind’s 2024 silver-level result and reflected rapid gains from improved large language models, specialized reasoning pipelines, verification-and-refinement techniques, and training on high-quality mathematical data. Subsequent releases—including GPT-5 and enhanced reasoning models—plus ongoing work on benchmarks like AIME have further strengthened capabilities. With IMO 2026 set for July in Shanghai and continued frontier-model progress expected before then, traders view sustained or improved performance as the base case, tempered only by uncertainties around exact resolution criteria, official verification, or edge-case problem difficulty. The 2025 results established the key precedent, shifting consensus sharply toward yes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Volume
$6,849
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".**Recent breakthroughs in AI mathematical reasoning have driven the 82% market-implied probability that an AI achieves IMO gold-medal performance in 2026.** In July 2025, Google DeepMind’s advanced Gemini with Deep Think and an experimental OpenAI model both reached the gold threshold of 35/42 points on the official IMO 2025 problems by solving five of six questions with rigorous natural-language proofs, matching or exceeding typical gold-medalist scores under contest-like conditions. This milestone followed DeepMind’s 2024 silver-level result and reflected rapid gains from improved large language models, specialized reasoning pipelines, verification-and-refinement techniques, and training on high-quality mathematical data. Subsequent releases—including GPT-5 and enhanced reasoning models—plus ongoing work on benchmarks like AIME have further strengthened capabilities. With IMO 2026 set for July in Shanghai and continued frontier-model progress expected before then, traders view sustained or improved performance as the base case, tempered only by uncertainties around exact resolution criteria, official verification, or edge-case problem difficulty. The 2025 results established the key precedent, shifting consensus sharply toward yes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Volume
$6,849
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 68% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 68¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 68% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Nov 12, 2025. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?" adalah 68% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 68% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.