OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and its March $852 billion post-money private round underpin the roughly 79 percent combined implied probability on closing market caps of $1 trillion or higher, as traders price in rapid AI revenue scaling offset by persistent losses exceeding $14 billion annually. Monthly revenue run rates near $2 billion reflect strong ChatGPT and enterprise adoption, yet flattening growth, compute-driven margins, and competition from Anthropic’s parallel IPO push introduce wide dispersion across the 1–1.5 trillion buckets. Sam Altman’s reported preference for a $1 trillion-plus debut and the shift toward a possible 2027 listing window rather than late 2026 further widen the outcome range, with the low 9.5 percent probability on no IPO by end-2027 signaling broad consensus on eventual public-market access.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui1.5T+ 34.9%
1.25T–1.5T 23%
1T–1.25T 21.2%
750B–1T 11%
$87,991 Vol.
$87,991 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
1%
500–750B
3%
750B–1T
11%
1T–1.25T
21%
1.25T–1.5T
23%
1.5T+
35%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
10%
1.5T+ 34.9%
1.25T–1.5T 23%
1T–1.25T 21.2%
750B–1T 11%
$87,991 Vol.
$87,991 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$6,134 Vol.
1%
500–750B
$8,207 Vol.
3%
750B–1T
$9,178 Vol.
11%
1T–1.25T
$13,974 Vol.
21%
1.25T–1.5T
$8,540 Vol.
23%
1.5T+
$22,625 Vol.
35%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$19,333 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and its March $852 billion post-money private round underpin the roughly 79 percent combined implied probability on closing market caps of $1 trillion or higher, as traders price in rapid AI revenue scaling offset by persistent losses exceeding $14 billion annually. Monthly revenue run rates near $2 billion reflect strong ChatGPT and enterprise adoption, yet flattening growth, compute-driven margins, and competition from Anthropic’s parallel IPO push introduce wide dispersion across the 1–1.5 trillion buckets. Sam Altman’s reported preference for a $1 trillion-plus debut and the shift toward a possible 2027 listing window rather than late 2026 further widen the outcome range, with the low 9.5 percent probability on no IPO by end-2027 signaling broad consensus on eventual public-market access.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$87,991Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and its March $852 billion post-money private round underpin the roughly 79 percent combined implied probability on closing market caps of $1 trillion or higher, as traders price in rapid AI revenue scaling offset by persistent losses exceeding $14 billion annually. Monthly revenue run rates near $2 billion reflect strong ChatGPT and enterprise adoption, yet flattening growth, compute-driven margins, and competition from Anthropic’s parallel IPO push introduce wide dispersion across the 1–1.5 trillion buckets. Sam Altman’s reported preference for a $1 trillion-plus debut and the shift toward a possible 2027 listing window rather than late 2026 further widen the outcome range, with the low 9.5 percent probability on no IPO by end-2027 signaling broad consensus on eventual public-market access.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$87,991Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and its March $852 billion post-money private round underpin the roughly 79 percent combined implied probability on closing market caps of $1 trillion or higher, as traders price in rapid AI revenue scaling offset by persistent losses exceeding $14 billion annually. Monthly revenue run rates near $2 billion reflect strong ChatGPT and enterprise adoption, yet flattening growth, compute-driven margins, and competition from Anthropic’s parallel IPO push introduce wide dispersion across the 1–1.5 trillion buckets. Sam Altman’s reported preference for a $1 trillion-plus debut and the shift toward a possible 2027 listing window rather than late 2026 further widen the outcome range, with the low 9.5 percent probability on no IPO by end-2027 signaling broad consensus on eventual public-market access.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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