Recent Wall Street Journal reporting on OpenAI's missed Q1 2026 revenue and weekly active user targets has solidified trader consensus against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, with "No" shares reflecting 77% implied probability. CFO Sarah Friar's internal pushback labels the Q4 2026 timeline as overly aggressive amid $600 billion in compute commitments and strategy shifts, including massive infrastructure bets like the $1.4 trillion Stargate project. Despite a March funding round valuing OpenAI at $852 billion—below the market's threshold—no S-1 filing has emerged, and historical precedents for AI unicorns suggest mid-2027 as more realistic. Traders eye upcoming earnings disclosures or regulatory hurdles as potential catalysts, underscoring prediction markets' wisdom-of-crowds efficiency.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$269,122 Vol.
$269,122 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$269,122 Vol.
$269,122 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.Recent Wall Street Journal reporting on OpenAI's missed Q1 2026 revenue and weekly active user targets has solidified trader consensus against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, with "No" shares reflecting 77% implied probability. CFO Sarah Friar's internal pushback labels the Q4 2026 timeline as overly aggressive amid $600 billion in compute commitments and strategy shifts, including massive infrastructure bets like the $1.4 trillion Stargate project. Despite a March funding round valuing OpenAI at $852 billion—below the market's threshold—no S-1 filing has emerged, and historical precedents for AI unicorns suggest mid-2027 as more realistic. Traders eye upcoming earnings disclosures or regulatory hurdles as potential catalysts, underscoring prediction markets' wisdom-of-crowds efficiency.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
Volume
$269,122Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.Recent Wall Street Journal reporting on OpenAI's missed Q1 2026 revenue and weekly active user targets has solidified trader consensus against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, with "No" shares reflecting 77% implied probability. CFO Sarah Friar's internal pushback labels the Q4 2026 timeline as overly aggressive amid $600 billion in compute commitments and strategy shifts, including massive infrastructure bets like the $1.4 trillion Stargate project. Despite a March funding round valuing OpenAI at $852 billion—below the market's threshold—no S-1 filing has emerged, and historical precedents for AI unicorns suggest mid-2027 as more realistic. Traders eye upcoming earnings disclosures or regulatory hurdles as potential catalysts, underscoring prediction markets' wisdom-of-crowds efficiency.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Volume
$269,122Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Wall Street Journal reporting on OpenAI's missed Q1 2026 revenue and weekly active user targets has solidified trader consensus against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, with "No" shares reflecting 77% implied probability. CFO Sarah Friar's internal pushback labels the Q4 2026 timeline as overly aggressive amid $600 billion in compute commitments and strategy shifts, including massive infrastructure bets like the $1.4 trillion Stargate project. Despite a March funding round valuing OpenAI at $852 billion—below the market's threshold—no S-1 filing has emerged, and historical precedents for AI unicorns suggest mid-2027 as more realistic. Traders eye upcoming earnings disclosures or regulatory hurdles as potential catalysts, underscoring prediction markets' wisdom-of-crowds efficiency.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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